Who will replace Joe Biden? The leading alternative Democratic Party candidates
Intense pressure is building on Joe Biden to quit after a series of gaffes called into question his mental and cognitive abilities.
The US president could be backed into a corner and forced to give up his position as the leading Democratic Party nominee before the November US election, such is the scrutiny he’s facing.
A poll carried out among 15,000 voters in vital swing states found other candidates had an average three-point lead on Biden, suggesting the 81-year-old could be on the brink.
Biden faced criticism after a ‘make or break’ press conference at a NATO summit saw him refer to Volodymyr Zelensky as ‘President Putin’ and Kamala Harris as ‘Vice President Trump’.
It comes after a rambling, incoherent performance during last month’s debate against Donald Trump raised serious doubts about his ability to contest the election.
Fears have continued to grow within his party that Trump could make a return to the White House if Biden doesn’t stand aside. But who is most likely to take over from him as the Democratic Party leader? We take a look.
Who could replace Joe Biden?
A disastrous poll for Biden by BlueLabs Analytics saw ‘nearly every tested Democrat perform better than the president’.
There were four alternative Democratic candidates who performed the strongest and ‘outpaced Biden by roughly five points across battleground states’.
They were Arizona’s junior US senator Mark Kelly, Maryland governor Wes Moore, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Vice president Kamala Harris also trailed behind the average alternatives to Biden.
Other Democratic governors who have previously been thrown into the mix as a possible replacement are California governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois governor J. B. Pritzker and Colorado governor Jared Polis.
Here’s a look at the four alternative candidates who have jumped to the top of the shortlist alongside Harris.
Kamala Harris
Vice president Kamala Harris would on the surface appear to be the most likely replacement for Biden given her deputy role, but it’s by no means that straightforward for her.
Strategist Theryn Bond said last month that she would not automatically become a nominee if Biden stands aside, nor would she have ownership of his delegates because she wasn’t on any primary ballots – unlike Biden.
Ms Bond also shockingly claimed she could not deliver a victory for the party because the US was ‘not ready’ for a Black woman to be president.
She told Sky News in June: ‘Unfortunately as much as I want the US to be ready for Black woman to be president, they are not ready.
‘This country is not ready. This country is too divisive, unfortunately, we’re just not there. I don’t think she would be the one to take the Democratic Party to victory.’
Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly wasn’t a name on everyone’s lips until a few days ago when the bombshell poll placed him in the top four leading candidates to take Biden’s place.
The 60-year-old has been in the Senate since the 2020 elections, having previously served in the Navy as a combat pilot and worked as an astronaut with NASA. He is now the senator of Arizona.
But he’s so far been unwavering in his support of Biden and Harris, urging voters to stick with them, and also dismissed the polling results as potentially inaccurate.
He told Roll Call earlier this month: ‘The goal here is to reelect President Biden. What I can tell you from my personal experience with public polling, it’s not entirely accurate.’
Wes Moore
Like Kelly, Wes Moore is another combat veteran who now works as the governor of Maryland.
And also similarly to Kelly, he’s always backed Biden and just 10 days ago, wrote on X: ‘Joe Biden has always had Marylanders’ backs. And we’re proud to have his.’
But some reports have suggested that in working hard to support the current Democratic leader, his own stock has risen significantly.
The 45-year-old is the only black governor in the US and the youngest Democrat to run a state.
While representing Biden at a service in Milwaukee, church member Tommie Reed Green, 81, said of Moore: ‘He seems to me the next Barack Obama. He does, he does.’
Josh Shapiro
Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is an experienced politician, serving in a number of roles within politics since he graduated university, as well as being a trained attorney.
When questioned this week over whether he could replace Biden, he told KDKA-TV: ‘I’m not going to get into hypotheticals. The president has made clear he is running, [and] I am proud to serve as Pennsylvania governor.
‘I love serving as governor, president Biden has made it clear he is running, the Biden-Harris ticket is the presidential ticket, and I support him.’
Time will tell if his view about running for leadership would change were Biden to resign.
Gretchen Whitmer
Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, is a lawyer who has served in her current role since 2019.
The 52-year-old has described herself as a ‘progressive’ Democrat and rose to prominence when she was selected to deliver the party’s response to the State of the Union address by then-president Trump.
Michigan was considered as one of the swing states in the last election in 2020 – and seen as a significant victory for the Democrats.
As with other candidates, she’s always been a staunch Biden supporter.
How likely is it that Joe Biden could be replaced?
This is of course the most important question of all. It’s one thing wanting Biden to be replaced, but actually doing so is far more complicated.
The only realistic scenario which would see someone else take over from Biden is if he voluntarily withdraws.
It was previously thought to be very unlikely, but odds are being slashed – and senior Democratic leaders have reportedly been discussing whether or not he should continue.
‘I think we did well,’ Biden told the press after the infamous debate with Trump last month. He also implied he has no thoughts of quitting, nor concerns about his performance.
He added: ‘It’s hard to debate a liar. The New York Times pointed out he [Trump] lied 26 times.’
However, there were major concerns in that debate that Biden was fumbling and is too old to continue – sentiments that have echoed loudly ever since.
‘There is a sense of shock at how he came out at the beginning of this debate. How his voice sounded. He seemed a little disoriented,’ said David Axelrod at the time, who was a top White House and campaign official for former President Barack Obama.
He told CNN: ‘There are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.’
Ousting Biden without a voluntary resignation is complicated because he already has enough delegates to have secured victory in the nomination.
He has 3,894 pledged delegates. He only needs 1,976 to be the nominee. It’s also thought to be almost impossible that he will be abandoned en-masse by his closest allies.
Bookmakers still consider Harris the favourite to replace Biden, while Michelle Obama and Hilary Clinton have even been linked with taking over.
What happens if Joe Biden does quit?
If Joe Biden does drop out before he is supposed to be formally nominated in August, it would essentially become a free-for-all among the Democrats.
There is no ‘mechanism’ for him or anyone else to elect a chosen successor, NBC reports.
Because most of Biden’s rivals for the party leadership all effectively won no delegates in the nomination process, they would all be starting from scratch.
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