Tropical Storm Carina strengthens again, seen to affect Batanes, Cagayan
MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Storm Carina (Gaemi) continued to intensify over the Philippine Sea on Sunday morning, July 21, and is already on track to reach severe tropical storm status within the day.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 11 am on Sunday that Carina’s maximum sustained winds increased from 75 kilometers per hour to 85 km/h.
The tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 115 km/h from the previous 90 km/h.
It was last spotted 350 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, moving west at a faster 20 km/h from only 10 km/h earlier.
Carina is not expected to make landfall in the Philippines, but its outer rainbands will affect the provinces of Batanes and Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands. PAGASA warned that the rain may trigger floods and landslides.
Below is the weather bureau’s updated rainfall forecast for the tropical storm.
Sunday noon, July 21, to Monday noon, July 22
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 millimeters): mainland Cagayan, Babuyan Islands
Monday noon, July 22, to Tuesday noon, July 23
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan
Tuesday noon, July 23, to Wednesday noon, July 24
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Babuyan Islands
PAGASA might also raise Signal No. 1 for extreme Northern Luzon and the northeastern part of mainland Cagayan by Sunday evening or Monday, July 22, “in anticipation of strong winds associated with Carina.”
By Monday evening, Carina could already be a typhoon. “Rapid intensification within the forecast period is possible,” according to the weather bureau.
Carina is also enhancing the southwest monsoon or habagat.
Here is PAGASA’s latest rainfall forecast for the enhanced southwest monsoon, with more areas — including Metro Manila — possibly rainy on Monday, the day of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s third State of the Nation Address.
Sunday, July 21
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Zambales, Bataan, Kalayaan Islands
Monday, July 22
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
- Moderate to occasionally heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Calamian Islands
Tuesday, July 23
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro
- Moderate to occasionally heavy rain (50-100 mm): Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Calamian Islands
Floods and landslides are likely, too.
The enhanced southwest monsoon will also bring strong to gale-force gusts to the following areas:
Sunday noon, July 21, to Monday noon, July 22
- Mimaropa, Bicol, Western Visayas
Monday noon, July 22, to Tuesday noon, July 23
- Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas
Tuesday noon, July 23, to Wednesday noon, July 24
- Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Bicol, Visayas
In addition, Carina and the enhanced southwest monsoon will cause moderate seas in the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon (waves 1 to 2.5 meters high), western seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon (waves 1.5 to 2.5 meters high), and eastern seaboard of the country on Sunday (waves 1 to 2.5 meters high).
PAGASA advised small boats to take precautionary measures, or if possible, avoid sailing altogether.
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Carina is seen to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday night, July 24, or early Thursday morning, July 25, while moving near the islands of Japan’s Ryukyu archipelago.
It is the Philippines’ third tropical cyclone for 2024. The second, Tropical Depression Butchoy, left PAR on Saturday morning, July 20.
Butchoy and Carina both developed on Friday evening, July 19. By that time, Butchoy was already moving away from Philippine landmass, with no direct impact. But as a low pressure area, it had affected parts of the country earlier in the week, alongside the southwest monsoon.
PAGASA previously estimated there may be two or three tropical cyclones in July. – Rappler.com