Mission Impossible: Could the Air Force Build 300 B-21 Raider Bombers?

Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force's B-21 Raider, designed to maintain a nuclear edge over China and Russia, faces challenges in production timelines and budget constraints.

-Any plan to build 300 Raiders over the next decade, with only ten produced annually starting in 2030, may not meet the urgent need to counter escalating threats.

-Budget issues hinder production capacity, risking the effectiveness of the Raider program.

-Unlike the Next-Generation Air Dominance program, the B-21 will not be paired with cheaper, unmanned aerial vehicles, raising concerns about whether 300 Raiders will be sufficient for deterrence.

Production Delays Threaten U.S. Air Force's B-21 Raider Fleet

The Air Force’s upcoming B-21 bomber is designed to give the U.S. a nuclear edge over its adversaries. China and Russia are developing their own next-generation stealth bombers, and the race to get there first is competitive. 

Even if the B-21 Raider is superior to its counterparts, the Air Force must produce a large quantity of these fighters if they are to make a difference in a kinetic conflict. Experts have pushed the service to build at least 300 Raiders over the next decade, But such hefty, technologically intricate airframes take a long time to build. 

The Air Force will also be retiring existing fleets of older bombers while the Raiders are individually delivered.

How slower timelines and budgets could impede the Raider’s prowess in the skies:

According to a Forbes report, the Air Force will build about 10 Raiders per year beginning in 2030. As tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to escalate, that low figure is concerning. As detailed by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies’ Director of Future Concepts Mark Gunzinger, “I certainly hope Congress is squirming in their seats. Our bomber and fighter forces will reach new lows this decade before they increase in size. At the same time, the threat of aggression against Taiwan or in the South China Sea is peaking. It makes no sense from a deterrence, risk-management or warfighting perspective.” 

Gunzinger also notes that Raider issues all stem from budgetary constraints:  “It’s all budget-driven. It’s not based on the capacity of the [Northrop Grumman] production plants in my opinion.”

Budgetary limitations and production slowdowns are also impacting other next-generation programs. However, unlike the Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, the B-21 will not be paired with highly autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles. Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs) will fly alongside sixth-generation fighter jets as part of NGAD. Since CCAs are cheaper and easier to produce, the Air Force will be able to create greater quantities of new airframes, which will be essential to deter China’s larger military. However, as Gunzinger noted, the service will be unable to apply this strategy to the Raider program.

Will 300 B-21 Raiders ultimately be enough?

When the first Raider officially enters service with the Air Force, it will bring with it unprecedented capabilities as a battle manager, intelligence platform, and intercept aircraft. Several released images indicate the platform is much smaller than its predecessor, the Spirit. The Raider’s wingspan could measure roughly 15% shorter than the Spirit’s, which will make the next-generation bomber harder to detect on radar. 

Although the Raider sounds great on paper, enough of them need to be built to contribute to U.S. deterrence strategy.

About the Author: Maya Carlin

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. 

Image Credit: Creative Commons.