MMO Trade Profile: Colin Poche, LHP

Position: RP B/T: L/L
Age: 30 (01/17/1994)

2024 Traditional Stats: 27 G, 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 1-1, 22 K, 8 BB
2024 Advanced Stats: 121 ERA+, 22.2% K%, 8.1% BB%, 4.07 xERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, -0.2 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR

Rundown

A 16th-round pick in 2016, Colin Poche debuted with the Rays in 2019 but missed all of the 2020 and 2021 seasons after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery. He appeared in at least 65 games in 2022 and 2023, having the best year of his career a season ago. Poche posted a career-best 2.23 ERA in 60 2/3 innings in 2023, striking out 61 batters and only allowing four homers.

The 30-year-old got off to a rocky start in 2024, owning a 6.75 ERA on April 23 before spending six weeks on the injured list with mid-back tightness. Since getting activated on June 8, though, Poche has posted a 1.15 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 15 2/3 innings while holding opponents to just a .443 OPS.

Home runs have been an issue for Poche for most of his career, including 2024, as he’s given up five long balls in 25 innings. Poche’s batted-ball data suggests he may be getting a little lucky. He’s never induced ground balls at a very high rate, and his 30.4% grounder rate is down from 33.8% a year ago. Opponents are also making harder contact against Poche, with his hard-hit rate jumping from 31.3% to 43.5% and average exit velocity rising from 87.2 MPH to 92.0.

Poche has been a two-pitch pitcher for the last two seasons, relying on a four-seam fastball and a slider. While his fastball velocity is down just over a mile per hour and doesn’t generate many whiffs, it has a plus-3 run value. His slider has been his strikeout pitch, registering a 43.1% whiff rate and 37.9% strikeout rate.

Poche has a track record of success against both lefties and righties, but he’s been torched by southpaws in a limited sample size this season, allowing a .296/.387/.556 batting line in 31 plate appearances this season. However, he’s held righties to a weak .523 OPS in 68 plate appearances.

Package

After 2024, Poche has one more year of club control before hitting free agency. It’s hard to imagine the Rays demanding a huge return for a non-closing reliever, especially one who’s already missed time this year due to injury. Poche is making $2.375 million this year and is arbitration-eligible this offseason.

In the 2022-23 offseason, the Mets swung a trade with the Rays for Brooks Raley, giving up left-handed pitching prospect Keyshawn Askew, who wasn’t ranked in the team’s top 30 prospects at the end of the year. Raley was also a controllable arm, but Poche is four years younger than Raley was at the time, which may increase his cost.

Mets Receive:

• Colin Poche

Rays Receive:

• Raimon Gomez (Mets No. 27 Prospect via MLB Pipeline)

Gomez is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he has a live arm with a fastball that can touch triple digits.

Recommendation

The Mets already made one trade this year with the Rays to acquire Phil Maton, and they could use all the arms they could get. Even during the team’s recent hot stretch, the Mets’ bullpen has struggled badly, posting a major league-worst 7.49 ERA since July 1.

With Brooks Raley out for the season, Jake Diekman has been the team’s only lefty in the bullpen for most of the year, and he’s posted an underwhelming 5.33 ERA with 22 walks in 27 2/3 innings. While acquiring Poche might not be the flashiest move, it would address the team’s glaring need for another lefty to shore up their bullpen.

Poche has been a high-leverage reliever for most of his career, and he likely will not cost much to acquire.

 

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