Looking at the Penguins (and other non-playoff team’s) chances of returning to the playoffs this season

There are going to be at least six or seven teams going for what is realistically two spots.

Every year there is at least one team — and usually more — that makes the playoffs one year after missing them. It is just a matter of which team it is going to be, and which one they are going to replace. With the Pittsburgh Penguins coming off their second straight non-playoff season, they once again find themselves in that discussion.

The NHL’s social media team asked the question on Wednesday of which team it is going to be this season, so let’s try to tackle it.

These one year turnarounds can also have a tendency to be really unpredictable.

Expectations were extremely low for the Vancouver Canucks going into the 2023-24 season, and they ended up winning a really tough Pacific Division.

The Winnipeg Jets looked like they were set up for a run of extended mediocrity, and then won 52 games and nearly won the Central Division.

The Washington Capitals were coming off a losing season with one of the league’s oldest rosters, managed to actually play worse in 2023-24 than they did the year prior, and somehow still made the playoffs due to some wild voodoo magic.

Basically, no matter how things look in July or how uninspiring your offseason is or how tall the mountain is in front of you there can still be some weird things that happen in an 82-game season.

The Penguins may not have the type of goalie the Jets have (Connor Hellebuyck) to change their season, and their core might not be as young as Vancouver’s, but they were still not that far away from being a playoff team the past two seasons. It is not crazy to imagine that simply improving the power play might be enough to make up the three or four points they need in the standings.

So let’s take a look at the 2023-24 Eastern Conference playoff field, the teams that missed, and whether or not the Penguins can be one of the ones to jump back in this season.

2023-24 Eastern Conference Playoff Teams: New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, New York Islanders, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning

Teams that should be considered locks to return: Florida Panthers, New York Rangers

The Panthers lost some pieces from their Stanley Cup winning team, but they still have the bones of this thing in place and are a top team in the NHL. Over the past three years they have won a Presidents’ Trophy, played in the Stanley Cup Final, then won the Stanley Cup. Losing Brandon Montour and Vladimir Tarasenko isn’t going to change much of that success. They are going to be in.

The Rangers have not had a great offseason, and I think random chance and regression is going to produce a worse regular season than the one they had a year ago (Presidents’ Trophy winning teams do not come back and win more games the next season), but they are still one of the best teams in the league and do enough things well that they are going to be in.

Teams that are probably going to be in: Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning

Like the Rangers, I really haven’t liked most of the offseasons for these teams. I don’t think Carolina is better at the moment, Toronto still hasn’t addressed its lack of scoring depth, and Boston lost a key goalie, hasn’t really improved a worse-than-people-realize defense and it is still lacking a true No. 1 center on the roster. Truthfully, the Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov signings might be two of the worst of the offseason.

Jake Guentzel seems like a great fit in Tampa Bay, but is it better with him and Ryan McDonagh at the expensive of Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev? Maybe not worse. Probably not much better.

But all four of these teams are starting from such a high point than even a small step backwards is enough to keep them in.

Teams that are vulnerable: New York Islanders, Washington Capitals

These are the teams whose spots you have to be going for. The Capitals were, objectively speaking, one of worst playoff teams in recent NHL history, while the Islanders were just ... the Islanders. And by that I mean they did not do any one thing particularly well, looked bad, lacked star power, and somehow scratched out enough wins and points to somehow finish with 94 points and make the playoffs. It does not make sense. It never makes sense.

The Capitals are going to be fascinating because they overturned so much of their roster and might actually be legitimately good this season.

They added two top-six forwards in Pierre-Luc Dubois (I am still higher on him than most) and Andrew Mangiapane, two top-four defensemen (Matt Roy and Jakob Chychrun) and a league-average, cheap goalie (Logan Thompson).

They might actually be a tough team to catch because they should be better. At least on paper.

Now let’s assess the competition trying to jump into those spots that could be vulnerable.

Teams that are probably not going to make the playoffs: Philadelphia Flyers, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens

I am kind of torn on Philadelphia because they actually showed some real progress a year ago and did a lot of things really well, especially defensively. They also have their core building block arriving in forward Matvei Michkov. But they also seem completely resigned to the fact it is not their time to compete yet and that a step backwards is inevitable. Their offseason has been underwhelming in terms of the NHL roster.

Columbus has a new general manager (Don Waddel), will be bringing in a new coach and actually has a really good farm system and core group of young talent in place. The NHL roster right now, however, still mostly stinks and looks to be a couple of years away.

Montreal is taking an extraordinarily slow and methodical approach to its rebuild and, like Columbus, is still probably years away. I like Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, but there is not much else here.

The teams with a real chance: Pittsburgh Penguins, New Jersey Devils, Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings

Realistically speaking New Jersey seems like the obvious team here. A lot of things went wrong during the 2023-24 season from awful goaltending, to poor coaching, to a crazy run of injuries that took some of their top players out of the lineup (often times at the same time). Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen should be a huge upgrade over the duo they rolled with in goal for most of the season, while you have to assume that their injury luck can be at least a little better this season. Jack Hughes is probably going to miss 10-15 games just because that seems to be the norm for him, but their defense has a chance to improve by massive leaps if Dougie Hamilton is healthy and with the addition of Brett Pesce. The additions of Markstrom and Pesce to go with their still young core could be significant. I not only think they are in, I think they are a legitimate contender.

I am in a “I will see it when I believe it” mode with the Sabres. I think the team they went into last season with was better than the team they are going into this season with, and that team ended up regressing. I like the potential of their defense. But at some point you have to actually do something to change the narrative around you.

It is a similar story with Detroit. They had one of the worst defenses in the NHL a year ago and their solution to fixing it (so far) has been giving away Jake Walman, one of their actually somewhat reliable defenders. Bringing Patrick Kane back helps the power play, but he has his flaws 5-on-5 and I am still not sure how that hip holds up over a full season. They will score some goals, but I don’t think they are going to stop enough people to make up that ground. I am not trusting the Yzerplan.

Ottawa addressed its biggest weakness by acquiring Linus Ullmark, and they have an outstanding core at the top of the roster, but the depth at both forward and defense is going to be an issue.

Then you have the Penguins. They still have a few Hall of Famers that can play at a high level. They did a lot of things well during 5-on-5 play a year ago and mostly played at a playoff level in that regard. The wild card is going to be whether or not the goaltending is competent enough and if the power play can be an asset instead of a liability.

In all honesty, I actually do like the chances of the Penguins power play bouncing back more than I do Detroit’s defense being passable, Ottawa’s depth being enough or Buffalo actually putting it all together. It is just a matter of if they can do enough to overtake the Islanders or Capitals, or if one of Carolina, Tampa Bay, Boston or Toronto regresses more than anticipated.