Senate GOP campaign chief’s greatest election fear: ‘Outside, disruptive events’

MILWAUKEE — Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), who chairs the Senate Republican campaign arm, says that it’s the uncontrollable and unforeseen moments that are giving him headaches only months out from election day.

In the past month alone, two bombshell moments — the assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden’s disastrous debate performance — have altered the course of the election. Although both may ultimately help Republicans, Daines, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), is hoping those kinds of surprises are kept to a minimum ahead of Election Day. 

“It’s the outside, disruptive events that can occur you have no control over,” Daines told The Hill from the NRSC's suite at Fiserv Forum when asked what keeps him up at night at this point of the cycle. “I just don’t know what else that could happen in the next three and a half months, and I can’t control it."

Daines, who is hoping to flip the requisite two seats to end the GOP’s four-year stretch in the minority, added that the Trump and Republicans have responded to the attempt on his life is “helpful” writ large given the shift in tone by him and the party.

“It’s moving President Trump into a unity kind of message now in this moment after he nearly lost his life,” he said. 

The Montana Republican also maintained that the possibility of President Biden stepping aside from the top of the ticket does not change operations at the committee or their efforts on the Senate map. 

Daines said in May that he is looking at upwards of eight seats that could flip come November, almost all of which feature Democrats who are running well ahead of Biden in one battleground state after another. 

“It doesn’t adjust or change our plan right now. We’ve always realized there are unknowns here. We’re not going to adjust, we’ve got our candidates now on the battlefield,” Daines said.

He also noted that their general election slate of candidates is almost complete, with the Michigan primary the last one pending. Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is the heavy favorite in next month’s primary. 

“We’ve got the right candidates. It’s about resources now, campaign execution and I think we’re going to come out of this convention probably more unified as a Republican Party as I’ve seen in a while,” he said. 

According to polls released in a series of battleground states on Monday by The New York Times and YouGov, Democratic incumbents lead by between high single-digits and low-double digits, signifying an uphill climb for Republican challengers despite Biden polling woes. 

Daines and Republicans remain confident about their chances to flip seats occupied by Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in a pair of red states where Trump is expected to win heavily.