The UEFA Playoff Stitch-Up

Let’s start this off with the good news. Whatever happens tonight, Scotland will be one of the eight seeded teams in the first round draw of the Euro 2025 playoffs. Even if we lose and finish second, the positions of the other teams in the other B leagues is such that we cannot possibly be anything worse other than the best runner-up. Croatia can get to 12 and we’re already on 13.

That will actually mean being the fourth best team in the B League seeding for the first round, as Switzerland have won their group already and they won’t be in the playoffs due to them being the host nation.

But we cannot rest on that. I’ll come back to that, but now for the bad news. Unfortunately, no matter what we do now, we cannot be seeded in the second round of the playoffs. This was always the case being a B league team.

Let me explain how the playoffs work.

The first round of playoffs is split into two. You have eight A league teams that don’t qualifying automatically. That’s the bottom two in each of the four A leagues as the top two are qualifying automatically without the need for playoffs. They’re going each face one of the best eight teams from the C league – that will comprise of the five C league winners and the three best runners up. We’ll get eight winners from those two legged ties, the A league teams all being seeded and all being at home in the second leg.

Meanwhile, twelve of the B league teams will be on the other side. Three group winners (because Switzerland don’t have to qualify), four group runners up, four third placed teams and the best fourth placed team (to make up for Switzerland not being in the playoff). The three group winners and three best runners up will all be seeded, and will face one of the remaining unseeded teams. We’ll get six winners from those two legged ties, the seeded B league teams all being at home in the second leg.

The second round of playoffs will combine these two paths into one. But, because they’ll do the draw for both rounds at the same time, a draw that takes place this coming Friday, that means that seeding for the second round will always have the seven best A league teams as seeded.

Yes that little quirk means that the C league teams are seeded in the second round! That seems fair…

The lowest ranked of the eight A league teams will be unseeded along with all six of the B league teams. Including Scotland, no matter how well ranked we might find ourselves after tonight. We could be the best B league team and we’ll still be the ninth overall in this list.

What is still at stake tonight though is actually winning the group and making a quick return to Nations League A. That would definitely be nice, especially if we could then avoid a difficult group like we had last time out! And if we can stay there, it might help us out in these crazy playoff systems next time!

So as disappointing as that might be, tonight’s match does still matter. But it matters to both of us!

Serbia has all the same ambitions that we have. Winning the group, promotion to Nations League A, already been assured of seeding in the first thanks to picking up 13 points already, and ultimately qualifying for Euro 2025. They’re only second in this group because their goal difference isn’t as good as ours. They’re three goals behind us in fact.

That, of course, makes it more difficult for them to win the group. Although, it does mean it’s a very simple equation for Serbia. To win the group they need to win tonight. Don’t win, they finish second even with a draw. Yes, a draw is good enough for us to win the group.

When we faced Serbia in the opening match back in April in Leskovac, it was a goalless draw.

Since then, of course, both ourselves and Serbia have won all our matches.

Serbia started with a 4-2 win away to Israel a few days after their goalless draw against Scotland.

They then beat Slovakia 2-1 at home in the first part of their double header.

With a 4-0 win away from in the second.

On Friday, they rounded off those four wins with a 1-0 win at home to Israel.

While that was going on, we were picking up our own wins. First, a 1-0 win at home Slovakia courtesy of Sophie Howard.

The double header against Israel is where we built up the goal difference, firstly with a 4-1 win at home. Claire Emslie with two goals and one each from Kirsty Hanson and a Martha Thomas penalty.

Then the away game was a thumping 5-0, Martha Thomas getting the first four goals and Chelsea Cornet getting the fifth.

Last Friday, Claire Emslie got both goals in the 2-0 win away to Slovakia.

Scotland’s first meeting with Serbia, I guess, was technically as Yugoslavia back in 1978. Over in Pescara, Italy, Scotland ran out 3-2 winners. You need to go to August 2013 to find the first and only meeting with just Serbia prior to this campaign, and that was in a 1-1 draw with Lana Clelland getting Scotland’s goal. Even that game was in Stara Pazova, so this will be our first time hosting Serbia in any form. And neither team has won in either of the two meetings, so it would be nice to change that.

Tonight’s match is a 6pm kick off at Firhill in what could well be a crucial match for Pedro Martinez Rosa’s women. So moving it to an annoyingly earlier kick off time at the smaller venue is kind of annoying when you know that would never happen with the men. I’m sure if there’s a decent crowd in the smaller capacity stadium then the atmosphere will be great, but the kick off time might trip even that plan up.

If you can’t make it along in time, it’s live on BBC Alba.

Maybe it’s just me, but this feels like a step backwards for our women’s game. They deserve more, particularly in a campaign that so far as been one that’s brought out the results and has set us up quite nicely for a decent crack at the Euro 2025 qualification playoffs.

But hopefully Scotland can go out there and get the result tonight that their hard work has deserved, and go into the playoffs later this year in good form. Good luck tonight, Scotland!