A New Threat To Regional Stability? – OpEd

India's recent test of the Agni-V missile, equipped with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) technology, marks a significant shift in South Asia's strategic paradigm. This missile, which can deliver multiple warheads to different targets, holds the potential to alter the security calculus of the region. While India touts this advancement as a boost to its deterrence against China and Pakistan, it also raises alarms about an escalating arms race, regional stability, and the broader security landscape in South Asia.

India's adoption of MIRV technology raises critical questions about its nuclear doctrine, especially its longstanding ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy. The NFU policy asserts that India will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. However, the deployment of a MIRV-equipped missile could push India towards a more aggressive posture, possibly including pre-emptive strikes if it perceives an imminent threat, faces a large-scale conventional attack, or aims to disrupt an adversary’s nuclear capabilities based on potentially flawed intelligence.

India's development of the Agni-V underscores its strategic use of civilian technology for military purposes. The missile’s capabilities have been significantly enhanced through advancements from India’s civilian satellite program, particularly the SLV-3. By leveraging solid-fuel propulsion system and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology from its space program, India has notably improved its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capabilities. The collaboration with NASA has also been instrumental in this progress. In the context of the 'Thucydides Trap' between the US and China, this strategic application of dual-use technologies, coupled with US support for India, is contributing to the militarization of peaceful projects, heightening tensions among neighboring countries and potentially undermining regional peace. This is further evidenced by recent US sanctions on suppliers to Pakistan’s Ballistic Missile Program, revealing a clear bias.

The operational requirements of India’s MIRV capability also raise concerns among regional actors. Unlike China, which has limited Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) capabilities, and Pakistan, which has chosen not to pursue a BMD system, India’s development of MIRVs appears to be disproportionate. While MIRVs provide a strategic edge against sophisticated BMD systems, their development by India, raises questions about its strategic intentions and commitment to regional stability. The absence of a BMD threat from either China or Pakistan suggests that India’s pursuit of MIRV technology is driven more by regional hegemony and prestige than mere deterrence.

The timing of the Agni-V MIRV test, coinciding with general elections in India, fueled speculations about the political motivations behind the demonstration. This move mirrored the Anti-Satellite Missile Test (ASAT) conducted in March 2019, just before the Indian elections that year. The BJP Government’s penchant for showcasing military prowess ahead of elections can be seen as an effort to bolster its image as a staunch defender of national security, thereby swaying voter sentiment. In contrast, Pakistan’s development of the Ababeel MIRV aligns with its strategic needs, given that its only adversary, India, possesses a two-layered BMD system capable of intercepting aerial targets ranging from 30 km to 5000 km.

In light of above developments, it is crucial for India and Pakistan to establish new confidence-building measures (CBMs) to mitigate the potential destabilizing effects of advanced technologies. Key elements of effective CBMs include robust communication channels, bilateral discussions on emerging technologies and their implications for regional peace, and strict adherence to missile test notification protocols. Additionally, regular strategic dialogues, supported by Track 1.5 diplomacy and regional task forces focused on new military technologies, remain to be essential. India must acknowledge that its pursuit of MIRV technology has serious implications for regional stability and take concrete steps to address its neighbors' concerns.