Television and film production is in “a wholesale depression”

TV and movie production was down 40% in the spring quarter just ended, according to a new report from the production intelligence platform ProdPro. It warns that the downturn is likely “here to stay.”

The report also puts numbers to a conversation “Marketplace Morning Report” host David Brancaccio had with Erik Oleson, a veteran showrunner, writer and founder of production company CrimeThink. He was also executive producer of the Emmy-winning series “The Man in the High Castle.”

Brancaccio spoke with Oleson on a TV show set in Georgia back in May. The following is an edited transcript of their conversation.

David Brancaccio: How are you feeling? What’s the vibe this number of months after the strike?

Erik Oleson: I think there’s a wholesale depression. It sped up the process that was already underway of the contraction of the business. I think that there are a lot of people who are now in a dark place. You know, the Guild did what it could to kind of hold back the tide of change. I think that you have a choice between adapting to the new realities or trying to hold on to things that will drive you extinct.

So one of the big things was a show, a certain number of episodes has to hire a certain number of writers. And that is, you know, what’s going to shore up our pension and our health care, and that was a necessary fight — obviously — for those reasons. That said, I think that it strangled the chance to allow an executive to take a flyer and say, “You know what, let’s just incubate this idea. I don’t know whether or not it’s going to be a show, but I’ll give you a few writers in what’s known as a mini room, and you can workshop whether or not this will become a show.” There are a few shows that I worked on that were generated that way that otherwise would never have made it to the air. And now that there are minimum numbers, will an executive just say, “Well, this idea is too out there for us. We’re just going to pass?”

Brancaccio: Is this all about artificial intelligence, mostly about artificial intelligence? That mood that you describe?

Oleson: No. I mean, AI is a component of it. I think the fact that peak TV is now over, there’s just simply — there was too much television. I mean, I was at lunch today, and somebody was describing a show to me, and I had never even heard of the network that the show was on, much less the show. And I’m a working television showrunner. How did I not even be on that network, right? So there was just too much, and now there’s a contraction. That, coupled with the rapid growth of AI. If the dinosaurs had looked up and saw that meteor coming in, I don’t know what they would have thought, but I’m going to be looking for a cave.