‘Sing Sing’ is very very very early favorite to win Best Picture Oscar – can it survive the whole season like ‘Oppenheimer’?

We opened Oscar predictions on Monday, July 1, earlier than ever before, and after just three days we’ve already had hundreds of movie fans place their bets here in our predictions center. Their early verdict: “Sing Sing” will win Best Picture. But can it ride out the whole awards season on top of the odds? That’s what “Oppenheimer” did last year.

“Oppenheimer” opened on July 21 of last year. “Sing Sing” opens July 12 of this year. So the two films have that in common, even though their scale and subject matter are strikingly different. “Oppenheimer” was a sprawling epic about the man who led the development of the atomic bomb during World War II. “Sing Sing” is an intimate story about inmates at the title prison, who are rehabilitated through theater.

The two films also have in common strong candidates for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. “Oppenheimer” won both Oscars for Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., respectively. “Sing Sing” boasts early lead actor front-runner Colman Domingo (fresh off his first Oscar nom for “Rustin”) and strong supporting contender Clarence Maclin, who himself was formerly incarcerated and participated in the rehabilitation program.

“Sing Sing” premiered at the 2023 Toronto Film Festival, so a number of critics have already weighed in to the tune of 84 on MetaCritic and 97% freshness on Rotten Tomatoes so far. And as of this writing its Best Picture play is backed by all of the Experts journalists who have chimed in (dozens more will add their forecasts in the weeks and months to come), seven out of 10 Gold Derby Editors, 15 of our Top 24 Users and 16 of our All-Star Top 24. So the early signs are good for filmmaker Greg Kwedar‘s drama. But keep in mind that for every “Oppenheimer” that rules the odds from beginning to end, there’s a “CODA” that springs up at the last possible minute. What kind of year will this shape up to be?

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