Emmy Experts Typing: What dark horse contenders could surprise in drama?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss possible surprises in drama.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back after some July 4 fireworks to type about the Emmy drama race — perhaps the least dramatic of all the Phase 1 genres. Or is it? We’ve all got “Shōgun” in multiple places and most people expect “The Crown” to rebound and “The Morning Show” to ascend to Best Drama Series nominee. The rest of the category kind of falls into place from there: “The Gilded Age,” “Slow Horses,” “Fallout,” “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” and then a dealer’s choice for the final spot — maybe “Loki” (me) or “Ahsoka” (you) or “3 Body Problem” or “The Curse.” I guess what I wanted to figure out today is where we might see some surprises in the acting categories. You’ve already convinced me to drop Imelda Staunton from “The Crown” since she missed last year and the final season wasn’t the slam dunk many had expected. That means I’ve got my personal faves represented there, always a losing proposition. But for the sake of Ella Purnell and Maya Erskine, I hope my #bias doesn’t bring them bad luck. In Best Drama Actor, the top six has remained pretty consistent — particularly now that Walton Goggins has usurped Colin Farrell for “Sugar.” But is there a surprise waiting for us there? Are we sure Donald Glover and/or Goggins are locked in? The supporting categories are equally perplexing. I’ve basically just moved off all the actors from “The Gilded Age” and most of the men from “The Crown” in favor of almost everyone in the cast of “Shōgun.” But is that an overreach since the acting style on “Shōgun” isn’t necessarily what voters have gravitated toward in the past? Basically I’m tying myself into knots trying to figure out what I can’t figure out right now. What kind of surprises are you willing to entertain here, or will drama just go chalk?

joyceeng: I just wanna first say that I “convinced” you to drop Staunton based on your own rubric of lack of campaigning. I still have her, but I will be hardly surprised if she’s snubbed yet again. How wild would it be if Elizabeth Debicki were the only acting nominee from “The Crown” again? That’s not gonna happen because 1) Claire Foy is eligible, and 2) the field is soft. Voters could, of course, fill out spots with non-“Crown” performers, but I’m not even sure who’d have the edge. I suppose we should also ask, why are we all so confident in, say, Jon Hamm for “The Morning Show”? Yes, the show is strongest with the acting branch, but what if “The Crown” dudes actually have more juice just because of the sheer visibility of Netflix and more people tuning into Season 6 to see how Peter Morgan wrapped things up? “Succession” and “The White Lotus” took over supporting actor last year, but they’re gone now. What if Jonathan Pryce were ninth last year? I have triple “Morning Show” in with Billy Crudup and Mark Duplass as well; the former is a lock for a nom and possibly the win (again), while the former is a past nominee. Since Duplass has been dropped before, he could be on the sidelines again (is he the Carl Clemons-Hopkins of “The Morning Show”?), but what if the “shocking” snub is Hamm?

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Christopher Rosen: I definitely feel like you’ve been trying to manifest a Hamm snub on all fronts — you were also soft on his “Fargo” chances if memory serves — and I could see him missing for what was really an extended guest appearance. But because the category is so weak, I’m not sure that will matter all that much. I’ve added Duplass as well only because he’s a past nominee and he has one big moment this past season. For “The Crown,” for now, I’ve only got Khalid Abdalla due to his proximity to Debicki. But I also think Salim Daw could be a potential coattail nominee there as well. (I’d have Pryce third in terms of the hierarchy of actors.) I remain stuck on how voters will react to “The Crown” Season 6, a boost from Season 5 but well below Season 4. Maybe they’ll just go there because it’s the most comfortable and familiar option, in which case we could be underestimating its nominations haul. We’ve all been focused on the same 11 shows here, so I must ask: are we missing a dark horse contender hiding in plain sight? According to the odds, “Toyko Vice” could surprise and then there are shows like “Elsbeth” or “The New Look” hanging around in the 15-to-20 range in the odds. Do you think there’s a chance one of these underdogs lands a “shocking” nomination?

joyceeng: I was soft on Juno Temple for “Fargo” since she was missing the SAG nom that Hamm got — I just briefly dropped him when “Baby Reindeer” entered the chat, but “Shōgun’s” eventual defection from limited opened up two slots, so he went right back in. “Tokyo Vice” deserves and real ones know how good Season 2 was, but I unfortunately don’t see it happening. It quietly aired on Max in the spring, similar to how your beloved “Winning Time” aired quietly on Max last summer. No shade, but I feel like “The New Look’s” various odds are so high because people predicted it in February when the show premiered and then dropped off the face of the Earth. “Elsbeth’s” best chance is with Carrie Preston. She’s in eighth in the drama actress odds and has won an Emmy for this character already, so you can say voters like her as fan fave Elsbeth Tascioni. Voters largely avoided “The Good Fight,” but was it hampered by being on Paramount+ (née CBS All Access)? “Elsbeth” airs on CBS, just like “The Good Wife” did. Or does it not even matter because so many people have cut the cord? She’d be the first drama actress nominee from a broadcast network series since “How to Get Away with Murder’s” Viola Davis and “This Is Us'” Mandy Moore in 2019.

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Christopher Rosen: Will we ever see a broadcast show land in this category again? The mind reels. I guess before we wrap, I’ll allow myself the chance to stump for “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (not a sponsored Apple post, P.S.), which should be getting the “Loki” and “Ahsoka” push as the genre show representative we’ve seen voters respond to in recent years. Alas. So one last question for you, and let’s bring it back to “Shōgun.” I’ve got it landing eight acting nominations among the four main categories. That feels aggro, but I also think it might perform like “Succession” or “The White Lotus.” If it doesn’t, if voters don’t respond to it the way we think, which show stands the best chance of leading the acting charge? “The Morning Show”? “The Gilded Age”?

joyceeng: “The Morning Show” for sure. Eight of its 11 nominations have been for acting — remember when Steve Carell got in over Bob Odenkirk? I have “The Morning Show” and “Shōgun” getting eight acting bids apiece in the main categories. I don’t know what to do with “The Gilded Age” in acting, so I’ve just removed it completely. It’s so ensemble-y and stars some notable names you’d think might be name-checked, but I don’t think anyone expects it to explode from zero acting noms to nine like “Succession” did.

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