CAPA's 'strike' articles count rises, but aviation labour remains cautious

The number of news articles on the CAPA - Centre for Aviation website mentioning the word 'strike' rose sharply in 1H2024.

Historically, the number of 'strike' articles broadly follows the rise and fall of airline profit margins. It is a signal of labour's confidence in claiming a greater share of aviation's profits.

Typically, the count is highest in July and remains high in August and September, coinciding with the northern summer, when demand for air travel - and global airline profits - hit a seasonal peak. The next three months will go a long way to determining the 2024 annual total, but an increase on 2023 looks very likely, and IATA is also forecasting a modest increase in airline profits this year.

However, the number of strike-related articles is not back to pre-pandemic levels for years with similar margins.

Aviation labour has regained some confidence - albeit a more cautious confidence than in the past.