John Deere Classic betting odds, insight, predictions: Jordan Spieth among favorites
The PGA Tour is in the Quad Cities for the John Deere Classic before heading to Europe for the Scottish Open and the season’s final major.
This year’s John Deere Classic does not feature much firepower, but that does not mean this tournament will disappoint. Usually, the opposite transpires as this event has a penchant for producing drama down the stretch.
Look no further than last year, when Sepp Straka soared up the leaderboard and arrived on the 18th tee with a chance to shoot a 59. He needed to make one more birdie to shoot that sub-60 score, but he pulled his approach into the lake beside the green. He settled for a double-bogey—and a 62 instead—but still won the tournament by two.
Nevertheless, get ready to see plenty of birdies, not unlike the last two weeks at the Travelers Championship and the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Only twice in the past decade has the winning score been less than 20-under-par: in 2021, when Lucas Glover won at 19-under, and in 2017, when Bryson DeChambeau won by a stroke at 18-under.
John Deere Classic Odds:
Here are the latest odds for players to win the John Deere Classic, provided by DraftKings:
Sungjae Im +1400
Sepp Straka +1600
Aaron Rai +2000
Jordan Spieth +2200
Denny McCarthy +2200
Davis Thompson +2500
Maverick McNealy +2800
Keith Mitchell +2800
Jason Day +3000
J.T. Poston +3000
Nick Dunlap +3500
Adam Svensson +4000
Seamus Power +4500
Luke Clanton (a) +4500
Lucas Glover +4500
Kevin Yu +4500
John Deere Classic Betting Predictions, Picks:
Jordan Spieth: heart says yes, mind says no
The entire golf world seems to want Jordan Spieth to return to glory, something he has not experienced since April 2022, when he won the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head. Considering the diminished field strength this week—Sepp Straka, at 24th, is the highest-ranked player—you would think this would be a good opportunity for Spieth to bounce back and contend. Plus, he has won the John Deere Classic twice, in 2013 and 2015.
Yet, he has struggled mightily over the past few months, as his iron play and short game have let him down. He has not posted a top-10 since the Valero Texas Open, and in the nine tournaments since, his best finish came at Quail Hollow, where he tied for 29th. Given his poor play, he should have much higher odds than the +2200, but name recognition helps boost his price. Don’t take the bait.
Seamus Power posts first top 10 of season
After having a solid 2022-23 campaign, in which he qualified for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, Seamus Power has struggled to replicate that success in 2024.
He has had some strong finishes, including a T-12 at Hilton Head, a T-16 at the Wells Fargo Championship, and most recently, a T-20 at the Travelers Championship, thanks to a final round 7-under 63.
But the Irishman will post his first top-10 of the season at TPC Deere Run. For some reason, he loves this golf course. He has not missed a cut in his five appearances in this event.
Last year, he tied for 13th, ranking seventh among the field in strokes gained approaching the green. Two years before, Power tied for eighth. He also has a scoring average of 67.95 over his 20 rounds played in the Quad Cities, with a third-round 4-over 75 in 2019 being a significant outlier.
Power is +400 to finish in the top-10.
Eric Cole continues to surge, records best finish of year
Eric Cole plays almost every week. Literally. This week’s John Deere Classic will mark his 24th start of the 2024 season, and he will arrive in the Quad Cities with some momentum.
He tied for sixth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, his best finish of the year, but something tells us that he will do better than that this week. Cole is a solid putter, and for events like the John Deere Classic, which will yield plenty of birdies, it all comes down to how well players can roll it in the greens.
The Nova Southeastern alum ranks 13th on tour in overall putting average and 13th in putts per round, needing just a shade above 28 on average.
Hence, we like Cole to finish in the top 5 at +1000.
Odds-on favorite Sungjae Im contends but does not win
Sungjae Im is the odds-on favorite to win at +1400, but we do not believe he will record his third career PGA Tour victory this week. Yet, we like Im to contend, just as he has in numerous non-majors this season.
Since missing the cut at Augusta National, Im also failed to make the weekend at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. But in the five other events he has played since then, the Seoul, South Korea native has posted four top 10s and a T-12 finish. His best result came at the Travelers Championship, where he tied for third.
We like him to continue his strong play in the Quad Cities, finishing in the top 5 at +330, but somebody else will take the victory lap in a John Deere tractor instead.
2024 John Deere Classic winner: Patton Kizzire
Patton Kizzire did not start the season on the right foot, missing six straight cuts after tying for 13th at the Sony Open in Hawaii. But the former Auburn Tiger has re-discovered his form, making five of his last six cuts. Of those five events, he has finished no worse than T-28, which came at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, a team event.
Yet Kizzire is a terrific ball-striker, ranking eighth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approaching the green. He is fourth in greens in regulation percentage, finding the putting surface 71.53% of the time and eighth in proximity to the hole at roughly 35 feet. The question becomes whether or not he can convert those opportunities this week. Kizzire ranks 67th on tour in that regard, converting his birdie chances nearly 32% of the time, but something tells us he will do better than that this week at TPC Deere Run, a course where he has a strong history.
He has three top-25 finishes, including a T-11 in 2021 and a T-16 in 2022, but did miss the cut last year. Nevertheless, Kizzire bounces back with a vengeance this week to win the John Deere Classic and gain a tremendous career boost. Give us the long shot to win at +9000.
Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.