Series Preview: Mets Begin Crucial Stretch with Nationals Series

After losing their series to the Astros, the New York Mets (40-41) head to D.C. to face the Washington Nationals (39-44).

With the trade deadline looming, this month will make or break the Mets season. If David Stearns and other front office members are not convinced of the Mets’ ability to compete in the postseason by a certain point, they will have no choice but to pull the plug on this team by trading away expiring assets.

While the Mets are not facing top teams ahead of the All-Star break, their schedule is not easy by any stretch. For instance, they enter this upcoming series against the Nationals separated by just one win. They will also go against a formidable pitching staff, which includes a surplus of young talent.

Let’s get into the specifics by previewing the matchups for this four-game set!

Monday, July 1, 2024: LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.67 ERA) vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.60 ERA)

David Peterson has been effective through five starts. However, like many of his teammates, he struggles to limit walks. With a 10.7 percent walk rate, he is heavily susceptible to jams, which can be difficult to escape against stronger lineups. One positive development for Peterson is his 52.4 percent ground ball rate, which can help him generate double plays and other ground ball outcomes.

MacKenzie Gore has posted an encouraging season after being acquired from the Padres several years ago. He mainly offers a four-seamer, curveball, slider, and changeup. His curveball has been his most effective pitch this year, with a 34.9 percent whiff rate and a .216 opposing average. The Mets should look to keep their contact above the ground, as Gore features a 16th percentile 35.3 percent ground ball rate.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.89 ERA) vs. LHP DJ Herz (1-2, 5.48 ERA)

Sean Manaea has been much better recently despite still having issues with the walks. His 21st percentile 10.6 percent walk rate is problematic because he, too, is not a prolific strikeout pitcher. As someone who mainly relies on finesse, it is imperative he command the strike zone. The Mets need to work on control as a staff to make a run at the postseason.

DJ Herz is in his rookie year and has started five games. He offers a four-seamer, changeup, cutter and slider, with his changeup being his most effective pitch. He uses the changeup 24.7 percent of the time, and it has a .231 opposing average and 33.3 percent whiff rate. Overall, Herz has been effective in generating strikeouts and limiting walks but remains susceptible to hard contact. His 42.2 percent hard-hit rate and 12.5 percent barrel rate may prove disastrous against a Mets offense that has been seeing the ball well as of late.

Wednesday, July 3, 2024: TBD vs. LHP Mitchell Parker (5-4, 3.32 ERA)

Since Tylor Megill was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, there is a void for the starting pitcher for Wednesday’s game. It’s expected that either Christian Scott or José Buttó will fill this role. As for the possibility of a bullpen game, that is unlikely due to the plethora of injuries and the lack of off days until the All-Star break. The Mets cannot go wrong with either Scott or Buttó, as both have been effective in Triple-A Syracuse. Scott has a 2.12 ERA over his last four starts, and Buttó has a 2.97 ERA over his last 13 outings.

Mitchell Parker has enjoyed a solid rookie season through 14 starts. He throws a four-seamer, curveball, split finger, and slider, with his split-finger being the most effective. He uses it 17.6 percent of the time, and it has a .222 opposing average and 34.8 percent whiff rate. While Parker does not strike out a ton of batters, he has been adept at limiting walks with a 5.6 percent walk rate.

Thursday, July 4, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (3-5, 4.57 ERA) vs. RHP Jake Irvin (6-6, 3.03 ERA)

Jose Quintana has been rocky this season but better in recent play. In his last 16 1/3 innings, he has allowed just three runs with 21 strikeouts. This is a massive improvement in the strikeout department for Quintana, who has a 22nd percentile 18.1 percent strikeout rate for the season. If he continues to show encouraging signs, he could be moved at the trade deadline to make room in the rotation for Buttó or Scott.

Jake Irvin has been excellent in 17 starts this year. He mainly offers a four-seamer, curveball, sinker, and cutter, with his curveball being the most effective. He uses it at a 34.8 percent rate with a 27 percent whiff rate and a .185 opposing average. Irvin has been particularly adept at limiting walks, with just a 5.9 percent rate. The Mets must put the ball in play against Irvin, who controls the strike zone well.

Players to Watch

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

Brandon Nimmo has been swinging the bat well in recent play, batting .362/.471/.741 in his last 15 games with 21 hits, six home runs, ten walks, and 18 RBIs. On the season, Nimmo has consistently hit the ball hard with an 89th percentile 49.3 percent hard-hit rate and 83rd percentile 12.1 percent barrel rate. He has provided the Mets tremendous value on his long-term contract, as he offers a unique combination of a high on-base percentage and sneaky power numbers.

CJ Abrams (WSH)

CJ Abrams, another member of the Padres trade, has been excellent for the Nationals as of late. He is batting .455/.545/.764 in his last 15 games with 25 hits, three home runs, nine walks, and 10 RBIs. His 5th percentile 38.2 percent chase rate on the season indicates that he is a tough out, while his 95th percentile .296 xBA shows that he can find holes in the defense.

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