Potential Impacts Of A Second Trump Presidency On Indonesia-US Bilateral Relations – OpEd

The possibility of Donald Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election has important consequences for both domestic and foreign policies in the United States. During his initial term from 2017 to 2021, he pursued an "America First" agenda, which included economic nationalism, strict immigration policies, and a critical view of multilateralism. If Trump can secure a second term, similar themes will likely reemerge, leading to significant impacts on global geopolitics, including the bilateral relations between Indonesia and the United States.

This essay aims to analyze the potential impacts that a second term for Trump could have on Indonesia, specifically examining the economic, political, and social dimensions. A key focus of Trump's presidency was addressing trade imbalances, and his administration frequently implemented tariffs as a means to renegotiate existing trade agreements, thus disrupting global trade dynamics. If Trump is re-elected, it is expected that he will continue with this approach, a decision that could have far-reaching consequences for Indonesia.

Indonesia, which exported $20 billion worth of goods to the US in 2021, may face new challenges in its bilateral relations. The imposition of tariffs by former US President Trump, especially if the US deficit with Indonesia remains substantial, could target Indonesian products. As a result, trade agreements will likely need frequent renegotiation, putting increased pressure on Indonesia to further open its markets to American goods and services. The implementation of higher tariffs and trade barriers may hinder Indonesia's access to the US market, potentially impacting key sectors such as textiles, electronics, and agricultural products. To mitigate reliance on the US market, Indonesian exporters may need to strategically shift and diversify their markets.

Trump's economic policies could also impact foreign direct investment (FDI). American investors who are concerned about regulatory uncertainties and protectionist measures may reconsider their investment strategies. On the other hand, Indonesia may attract investors who are looking to bypass US tariffs by establishing production within Southeast Asia. If Trump were to serve a second term, there would likely be a continuation of a more assertive US foreign policy. Indonesia may need to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape due to the approach of Trump's administration towards alliances and rivalries. The increased military presence of the US in the Asia-Pacific region may enhance security cooperation but also risks involving Indonesia in regional conflicts, especially those in the South China Sea where tensions between the US and China are prominent.

Although Indonesia advocates for a neutral stance, it must carefully balance its diplomatic relations. Trump's confrontational approach towards China could further exacerbate regional tensions. As a nation with significant economic ties to both the US and China, Indonesia must effectively manage its relations to avoid becoming entangled in trade or military conflicts, requiring skilful diplomatic manoeuvres to maintain stability and economic growth.

During Trump's presidency, the US withdrew from various international agreements and organizations. A second term for Trump could potentially result in further disengagement from global institutions, which would impact collaborative efforts on issues such as climate change and public health. To compensate for reduced US involvement, Indonesia, an active participant in global forums, may need to establish new partnerships or strengthen regional cooperation within ASEAN.

Trump's immigration policies and nationalistic rhetoric had both social and cultural repercussions, both domestically and internationally, which could persist or intensify during a second term. These policies could affect interactions between Indonesian citizens and the US. Stricter US immigration laws may impact Indonesian students, professionals, and tourists. Visa restrictions could lead to a decline in educational exchanges, limiting opportunities for Indonesians to study in the US. Indonesian professionals may face greater challenges in obtaining work visas, affecting their ability to contribute to and benefit from the US economy. Travel bans and restrictive visa policies may decrease cultural and educational exchanges, thus weakening the bilateral relationship. Therefore, efforts towards promoting cultural diplomacy may become necessary to counterbalance these restrictions and maintain people-to-people connections.

A potential second Trump term could significantly diverge from international norms in terms of environmental policy. The rollback of environmental regulations and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement by the Trump administration demonstrate a lack of commitment to global climate initiatives. If the US were to withdraw from international climate agreements, it could undermine global efforts to combat climate change, particularly impacting vulnerable countries like Indonesia. Without US support, Indonesia's participation in international environmental initiatives may be hindered, potentially impacting funding and confronting political obstacles for collaborative projects focused on sustainable development, renewable energy, and conservation. Therefore, Indonesia may need to rely more on regional and multilateral partners to achieve its environmental goals. The re-election of Donald Trump in 2024 would undoubtedly impact bilateral relations between Indonesia and the US, with economic implications manifesting through renegotiated trade agreements and fluctuating investment flows. Political and diplomatic challenges might arise from heightened tensions between the US and China, as well as shifts in strategic alliances. Social and cultural ties may be strained by immigration restrictions, and environmental collaboration could suffer due to divergent climate policies.

In conclusion, Indonesia's advantageous geographical position and increasing economic relevance will require judicious diplomacy and adaptable economic strategies. The fortification of regional collaboration within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), expansion of trade alliances, and cultivation of domestic resilience will constitute imperative measures to offset the consequences of the Trump presidency. The prospects of the bilateral relationship hinge on Indonesia's capacity to navigate its interests amidst evolving global dynamics.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.

References

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