Guardians series preview: Can the Royals gain some ground?
I thought this division was supposed to be easy this year!
The Guardians won 76 games last year and although ZIPS projected an improvement, it was just to 80 wins in a mediocre division. But halfway through the year, the Guardians enter this series with the best record in baseball, just 25 wins short of last year’s win total.
Cleveland Guardians (51-26) vs. Kansas City Royals (43-38) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Guardians: 5.05 runs scored/game (3rd in MLB), 3.71 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Royals: 4.54 runs scored/game (13th), 3.75 runs allowed/game (8th)
The Guardians were red-hot in May, enjoying a nine-game win streak. They are heating up again, ending a seven-game win streak last night but still enjoying series wins over the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles recently. They have the best record in baseball over teams with a .500 record or better at 19-9.
The Guardians have power and speed - only seven teams have hit more home runs and seven teams have stolen more bases. They don’t strike out much at a rate of 19.4 percent, fifth-lowest in baseball. Steven Kwan has been on a tear since coming off the Injured List in late May, hitting .440/.506/.680 in his last 19 games. José Ramírez is eighth in the American League in fWAR and the fourth-hardest hitter to strike out.
Rookie Daniel Schneemann is a 27-year-old who was a 33rd-round pick way back in 2018, but he has been a terrific hitter in his first 18 MLB games and had a solid walk rate in the minors. Utility hitter David Fry has hit out of his mind so far this year, after hitting just .238/.319/.416 in 113 plate appearances last year. Josh Naylor has hit much worse on the road, batting .218 compared to .271 in Cleveland. The Guardians are a very good defensive team and are third in Defensive Runs Saved with middle infielders Andrés Giménez and Brayan Rocchio faring very well.
You probably don’t remember any of the six games Ben Lively pitched for the Royals in 2018-19, but he has come to Cleveland and become a solid starter because the Guardians have magical pitching pixie dust. Lively has failed to go as many as six innings in 9 of his 12 starts, and none of his last four. He has a reverse split where lefties have not hit him - they’re batting .193/.252/.342 against him. He barely throws 90 mph, and relies heavily on his sinker and sweeper.
Triston McKenzie has given up the second-most home runs in baseball behind only teammate Logan Allen. He gave up three dingers in his June 4 start against the Royals, giving up five runs in 5 1⁄3 innings in a game the Guardians would go on to win. McKenzie’s velocity is down significantly this year, and opponents are hitting .299 against his 91 mph fastball with 14 home runs. He has a 37.8 percent whiff rate on his curve, one of the highest-rates in baseball.
Tanner Bibee gave up just three runs - two earned - in five innings with seven strikeouts against the Royals in Cleveland earlier this month. He has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts, striking out 19 in 12 innings. Bibee has a 36.8 percent whiff rate on his slider, with opponents hitting just .135 against it. He has been a much better pitcher on the road with a 2.66 ERA in eight starts away from Cleveland.
Logan Allen has given up the most earned runs in the league and has one of the most hittable fastballs in baseball, with opponents hitting .342 against it. He lasted just three innings in his last start against the Orioles, giving up three home runs and six runs. In three career starts against the Royals, he is winless with a 5.27 ERA and Royals hitters batting .316 against him.
The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball with a collective ERA of 2.37 and a FIP of 3.03. They have the second-highest strikeout rate, the sixth-lowest walk rate, and the lowest home run rate. Closer Emmanuel Clase is second in baseball with 25 saves, and hasn’t blown a lead since May 19. Clase gets a 57 percent groundball rate and he has the sixth-lowest walk rate among relievers. Former Royals reliever Scott Barlow has the 12th-best strikeout rate in baseball. Cade Smith’s fastball has the best run value of any pitcher in the game. Lefties are hitting just .091/.167/.114 against Tim Herrin.
The Royals have been sliding, but a good series against first-place Cleveland could give them a boost of confidence and allow them to catch up much-needed ground. The Guardians have had some unexpectedly good performances from some hitters, and their starting pitchers have some vulnerabilities. Still, they are an experienced team that can attack you different ways offensively with a shutdown bullpen. The young Royals will get a good shot to see how they stack up against the best team in baseball.