4 free agents the Sabres could target this offseason
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BUFFALO, N.Y. (WIVB) -- The Buffalo Sabres and general manager Kevyn Adams enter yet another offseason without a playoff appearance, but this time, with an undeniable sense of urgency.
After an underwhelming season, the onus is on Adams to make moves that will push Buffalo's needle from the outskirts of the playoff picture to a postseason contender. Whether it be a trade or free agent signing, it's fair to expect the Sabres to be aggressive this summer and add to a forward group that underperformed last campaign.
“We’ve been disciplined,” Adams said during a pre-draft press conference last Thursday. “We’ve stuck to our plan. But I think we’ve moved into another phase now that we have to be really open and looking to make these type of decisions."
The Sabres could enter Friday's NHL Draft with $31.5 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly, should reports of a Jeff Skinner buyout come to fruition. While the big fish of this free agency class like Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault or Teuvo Teraveinen might not be inclined to sign in Buffalo barring an overpay, there are several other cheaper options that would add much-needed two-way playstyles to the Sabres' bottom six and allow Adams to scour the trade market for bigger upgrades.
Assuming the big names are out of play, which free agents could the Sabres add to bolster the forward group behind their top line? Here are four possible targets for Buffalo when free agency opens at noon Monday:
Warren Foegele
If you tuned into this year's Stanley Cup Final, you likely heard Warren Foegele's name mentioned a few times.
The 28-year-old is coming off a career year, tallying 20 goals and 41 points while featuring in all 82 regular season games. He added three goals and eight points in the playoffs, with two of his tallies coming in the Stanley Cup Final.
Foegele's ability to create chances and energy off the rush is what stands out most, as he ranked second on Edmonton in rush attempts and third in individual high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. While some of his numbers could be inflated by playing alongside Oilers star Leon Draisaitl for just under 400 minutes, Foegele actually posted a slightly better expected goal rate (58.3%) in the 791 minutes he played without the German, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Ontario native is not necessarily known for his defensive impact, but he's capable in his own end. He had by far the best season of his career when looking at advanced defensive metrics in 2022-23 while with Edmonton, according to Evolving-Hockey.
Foegele's offensive ceiling makes him an intriguing add to Buffalo's middle six, with the ability to shift up and down the lineup to provide a spark. Evolving-Hockey projects around a four-year, $4.2 million AAV contract for Foegele.
William Carrier
Sometimes, in order to move forward, you need to go back.
Will Carrier, 29, began his NHL career in 2016 as a Sabre, carving out a role in the bottom six before the Vegas Golden Knights selected him in the expansion draft the following offseason. Since then, he's spent seven seasons in Vegas in a similar role and helped the Knights win the Stanley Cup a year ago.
Carrier has consistently been one of the Knights' best defensive forwards at even strength over the past few seasons, bringing a forechecking, physical edge and quickness that would likely fit in well with new Sabres coach Lindy Ruff's system.
However, with that physical, quick playstyle comes a drawback: injuries. Carrier has appeared in 60 or more games just twice in his eight NHL seasons, presenting a risk for any team that may target him. Similarly, while he does possess speed and a solid transition game, he's never been known as a finisher, tallying more than 10 goals just once in his career.
With all that said, Carrier would be a great fit as a fourth-line, forechecking winger, and would likely come at a fairly cheap price. Evolving-Hockey projects the former Sabre at around a $1.3 million AAV.
Yakov Trenin
Russian center Yakov Trenin poses as another defense-first forward the Sabres could look to target.
The 27-year-old is strong on the forecheck and could be used in matchup situations against other teams' best players. While he is far from an offensive stud, never scoring more than 24 points in a season, he did produce a better-than-54% expected goal rate during his time with Nashville and Colorado combined last season. He also would bring some much-needed postseason experience to Buffalo.
Trenin also played 141 minutes on the penalty kill last season and found great success in that role with the Predators, leading all forwards by a notable margin in shorthanded defense metrics, according to Evolving-Hockey.
Evolving-Hockey projects Trenin at a four-year, $3.4 million AAV contract.
Anthony Duclair
If Buffalo does indeed move on from Jeff Skinner, Anthony Duclair could be a potential replacement.
Duclair has already been on quite the NHL tour across his first 10 seasons, playing for eight different teams before his 29th birthday. However, despite the journeyman's reputation, offense and speed have tended to follow him wherever he goes.
His career year came in 2021-22 with Florida, when he posted 31 goals and 58 points in 74 games. He tallied 16 goals and 27 points across 56 contests on an abysmal San Jose team last season before a trade to Tampa Bay saw him jump to nearly a point per game player, albeit in a small 17-game sample size. His even-strength expected goal share also jumped from 41% with the Sharks to 56% with the Lightning.
There is some slight injury concern with Duclair, who missed significant time during the 2022-23 season with an Achilles injury, but he bounced back to appear in 73 games the following campaign. Duclair would also add another weapon to Buffalo's power play, which ranked a lowly 29th in the NHL last season.
It's fair to assume Duclair would likely want some stability with his next deal, and Evolving-Hockey projects a four-year, $4.9 million AAV contract for him. Buffalo would certainly have the cap space to fit it, but it's debatable if the Sabres would want to dish out a deal of that length to a middle six forward with so many touted forward prospects in their pipeline.