What's up with that New York Times poll showing Trump well ahead of Biden?

The New York Times released the results of a new poll on Wednesday that shows Donald Trump up by 6 percentage points nationally among registered voters and 3 points ahead with likely voters. The focus of the accompanying article is that, despite Trump’s 34 felony convictions, Republicans are more solidly aligned behind him than Democrats are behind President Joe Biden.

The poll, which was conducted for the Times by Siena College, represents a shift toward Trump since the previous survey, in April, which showed Trump ahead by a single point among likely voters. And it seems especially bad news that Trump would enjoy such unblinking support despite that a Reuters/Ipsos poll right after his conviction showed Republicans and independents less likely to support him.

The new poll is getting heavy coverage in political media and generating considerable hand-wringing about the message it sends on the eve of the first presidential debate. But only after wading through seven paragraphs of how solid Trump’s support is among Republicans, and how much Democrats are waffling, does the Times give an important asterisk: So far, this poll is an outlier.