Thoughts and observations on the Pittsburgh Penguins 2024 NHL Draft

Some things to keep in mind and some thoughts for the Pittsburgh Penguins over the next couple of days.

The NHL offseason gets rolling this week with the NHL Draft on Friday and Saturday and the start of the free agent signing period on Monday.

It is going to be a hectic week, and no matter what direction general manager Kyle Dubas decides to take the Pittsburgh Penguins in this offseason he is probably going to be extremely busy over the next week.

So let’s take a look at a few things to keep an eye on going into the draft weekend.

Kyle Dubas almost always trades down at the draft (if he trades)

The Penguins have six picks in this year’s draft class, and none in the first or third rounds. Their most valuable picks are their two second-round picks (No. 44 and No. 46) and their fourth-round pick. The lack of high picks might create an opportunity for Dubas to take part in one of his favorite draft activities — moving down in the draft and collecting more selections.

Almost all of his draft-day trades in his general manager tenure, in both Toronto and Pittsburgh, have involved him moving down in the draft and stockpiling more selections, either in the current class or future draft classes.

There has only been one instance in his GM history where he actually moved up in a round, and even that was in the fifth-round of the 2020 NHL Draft to move up from No. 153 to No. 137 in that class.

He values quantity over quality in the draft.

And in all honesty, that is probably the right approach when it gets beyond the first round given the success rate of draft picks. You are better off giving yourself more swings in the hopes that one of them connects.

Given all of that, and given the lack of picks in this year’s class for the Penguins (and how three of them are in the sixth-and seventh-rounds), it seems highly unlikely he would break that trend this year unless somebody truly shocking fell out of the first round and into the early second round. It seems far more likely that one of those picks at 44 or 46 ends up getting flipped to try and gain a third-or additional fourth-round pick.

Some names to watch if the Penguins stand pat

If they do not move up or down here are the players in the 40-50 range of Max Bultman’s big board at The Athletic:

Dean L’étourneau
Sam O’Reilly
Adam Kleber
Henry Mews
Maxim Masse
Lucas Pettersson
Alfons Freit
Teddy Stiga
Aron Kivhiharju
Jesse Pulkkinen
Tanner Howe

Here are the players in the same range from the Central Scouting rankings.

Ollie Josephson
Tanner Howe
Jacob Battaglia
Max Plante
Teddy Stiga
Lukas Fischer
Luca Martelli
Javon Moore
Ethan Procyszyn
Ilya Prota
Carson Wetsch

Stiga and Howe are two players that consistently show up on the pre-draft rankings in this range.

Of course, how the outsider pre-draft rankings and the actual big boards of teams can tend to be very, very different.

Which roster players are most likely to be traded?

Tristan Jarry. There actually seems to be a lot of smoke surrounding Jarry, and it seems that a trade could potentially happen. As down as I am on Jarry I am still not sure how I feel about that. On one hand, Jarry’s contract isn’t great given what he has accomplished and the inconsistencies (and injury concerns) that have plagued his career and the Penguins would probably be better off going in a new direction at the position.

On the other hand, I am not sure how much I trust Alex Nedeljkovic as a full season starter no matter who the other goalie is. Is Joel Blomqvist ready for an NHL role? Is there an upgrade over Jarry available in free agency or as a reasonable trade market?

I also have alarmingly low expectations for a trade involving Jarry. Jacob Markstrom, a better player with a shorter contract was traded for a future first-round pick and bottom-pairing defender.

I doubt the Penguins could match that for Jarry. The benefit would be salary cap savings (which would be significant).

Reilly Smith. Smith arrived in Pittsburgh with reasonably high expectations, but for whatever reason it never really worked out as planned. A fresh start would probably be best for everybody involved, and given that he only has one year remaining on his contract it probably would not be terribly difficult to move him. If they can, they should consider it even if to just dump some salary and create some wiggle room and roster space to make some necessary changes to the forward depth chart.

Players you would like to trade, but are unlikely to move

Ryan Graves. On one hand, we have seen repeatedly over the past week that any contract is capable of being moved. If the Los Angeles Kings can figure out a way to move Pierre-Luc Dubois, the Penguins could theoretically figure out a way to move Graves.

I just don’t know if it will be worth it.

Mostly because we just saw the Detroit Red Wings trade Jake Walman, a better player than Graves with a significantly better contract, and they had to trade a second-round pick (No. 53 overall) to get the Sharks to take on two years and $3.4 million per season. And again, he is a better player than Graves!

They would probably need to either retain a lot of salary, or take back another contract in return.

Rickard Rakell. I feel Rakell would probably easier to move than Graves simply because he is a better player at this point. I also think there is a chance he is more likely to bounce back next season and be productive again. Certainly not a given, maybe not even likely, but probably more reasonable to expect. That might also make somebody want to take a chance on him. It also might be reason to hang on to him.