Can Richard Gadd (‘Baby Reindeer’) stop Jon Hamm (‘Fargo’) from winning Emmy bookend?

Jon Hamm has long been the Emmy front-runner for Best Movie/Limited Actor for his performance as a vindictive, corrupt sheriff in season five of the FX anthology series “Fargo.” He gives a deliciously mustache-twirling performance as he hunts down the wife (Juno Temple) who escaped his clutches, but now he’s got someone else on his tail: “Baby Reindeer” star Richard Gadd, who recently rose to second place in our racetrack odds, which are calculated from the combined predictions of Gold Derby users.

As of this writing Hamm gets leading odds of 39/10. He’s got the most support from the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed. Seven of them are betting on him compared to five who predict Gadd and three who predict another dastardly performer, Andrew Scott (“Ripley“). However, Gold Derby’s Editors have it the other way around: eight of them predict Gadd compared to just two who are backing Hamm. Our elite users are similarly split. The Top 24, who got the highest scores predicting last year’s Emmy nominations, give the advantage to Gadd. But the All-Star Top 24, who had the best predictions when you combine the last two years’ Emmy noms predictions, lean slightly towards Hamm.

Potentially complicating matters is the fact that both Hamm and Gadd could also win other Emmys this year, which may influence who voters decide to mark off for this award. Hamm ranks second in our odds for Best Drama Supporting Actor for his performance on “The Morning Show,” so academy members who want to give him a long-awaited second Emmy (following his victory for the last season of “Mad Men”) could do so there instead — or they could easily vote for both performances if they’re especially enthusiastic.

Meanwhile, Gadd is also an Emmy contender as a writer and producer of “Baby Reindeer,” so he could win one or both of those categories instead, unless the hype for the series is strong enough to carry him along to victories in all three races; sweeps have certainly become more common at the Emmys in recent years. Consider Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who won triple Emmys for writing, producing and starring in “Fleabag” in 2019. And “Baby Reindeer” recently climbed over “Fargo” to take the lead in our odds for Best Limited Series, so it has the potential to run the board. So watch out, Hamm, the hunter has become the hunted.

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