2024 Emmy Experts predict Best Drama Supporting Actor: Tadanobu Asano (‘Shōgun’) on the rise

Having trouble predicting who will win Best Drama Supporting Actor at the upcoming Emmy Awards? Let’s consult Gold Derby’s 2024 Emmy Experts! These savvy pundits from major media outlets have chimed in with their predictions, and the majority of them believe the trophy will go to Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”). The other potential nominees, per the Experts’ current racetrack odds, are Tadanobu Asano (“Shōgun”), Jon Hamm (“The Morning Show”), Khalid Abdalla (“The Crown”), Ke Huy Quan (“Loki”) and Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”).

As of this writing, a leading eight out of our 16 Emmy Experts predict a victory for Crudup: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine), Ray Richmond (Gold Derby), Susan King (Gold Derby) and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV). In Season 3 of the Apple TV+ drama, his CEO character Cory Ellison was involved in trying to get a tech billionaire (Hamm) to buy the fictional network UBA, with disastrous results. Crudup already won an Emmy for “The Morning Show” in 2020, so now he’s looking for a bookend trophy.

Three other Emmyologists — Ben Travers (Indiewire), Clayton Davis (Variety) and Eric Deggans (NPR) — instead believe Asano will prevail for “Shōgun.” He plays Kashigi Yabushige, the lord of Izu who serves Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) and eventually befriends Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis). This would be the Japanese actor’s first major trophy at an American awards show.

SEE Watch our lively chats with hundreds of 2024 Emmy contenders

A pair of pundits — Dave Nemetz (TV Line) and Peter Travers (ABC) — are picking Hamm to win. On the third season of “The Morning Show,” he appears as Paul Marks, who begins a relationship with Alex Levey (Jennifer Aniston). Hamm has received 16 total Emmy nominations throughout his career for his work on “Mad Men,” “30 Rock” and “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt,” triumphing on his final Best Drama Actor notice for “Mad Men” in 2015.

Two other Experts — Kelly Lawler (USA Today) and Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox) — think Abdalla will score a victory for Season 6 of Netflix’s “The Crown.” He’s coming off nominations at the Critics Choice Awards (supporting actor) and SAG Awards (ensemble) for playing Dodi Fayed, who was romantically linked with Princess Diana (Elizabeth Debicki) when they both tragically died in a car accident.

Finally, Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby) stands alone in thinking Quan is the one to beat. The recent Oscar champion for “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) is now hoping to receive his first career Emmy citation for his role of Ouroboros, a TVA technician who theorizes about time travel.

Some of the most recent Emmy winners in the Best Drama Supporting Actor category include Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”) in 2023 and ’22, Tobias Menzies (“The Crown”) in 2021, Crudup in 2020, Peter Dinklage (“Game of Thrones”) in 2019, ’18, ’15 and ’11 and John Lithgow (“The Crown”) in 2017. Find out who will be in the running to join this esteemed list when the Primetime Emmy nominations are announced on July 17, 2024.

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

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