Series Preview: Mets Host Yankees for First 2024 Subway Series

After achieving another series victory against the Cubs, the New York Mets (37-39) will host the crosstown rival New York Yankees (52-28) for a two-game series.

Since their return from London, the Mets have won all four of their subsequent series. Now, the Mets find themselves 1.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the thick of the fray with several other teams.

On the other side of town, the Yankees have emerged as a serious World Series contender. They sit atop the American League East Division by a two-game margin, as they have taken the short end of their last three series.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups for this short Subway Series!

Tuesday, June 25, 2024: RHP Gerrit Cole (0-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. LHP David Peterson (3-0, 3.97 ERA)

Yankees ace Gerrit Cole will make his second start of the season on Tuesday. In his 2024 debut, he tossed four innings with five strikeouts and three runs allowed. Cole’s four-seam fastball had an average velocity of 95 mph, nearly two miles per hour short of last year’s figure. That figure will likely increase as Cole’s workload increases, as the Yankees are remaining cautious after his return from an elbow injury. Cole also used his cutter more than usual in his first outing, while his slider was used less frequently. He looks to build upon his encouraging first start on Tuesday.

Manager Carlos Mendoza opted to push Luis Severino‘s start up to Sunday so that David Peterson could pitch on Tuesday. Peterson’s 53.9 percent ground ball rate could have been a factor in this decision, as the Yankees boast a number of strong power hitters. Also, the Yankees as a whole are batting .235/.323/.376 against lefties and .256/.333/.449 against righties, indicating that Peterson may serve as a more difficult matchup for them. While Peterson has been effective this year, his strikeout numbers are way down. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate have drastically decreased, and he is in the fifth and third percentile for each figure respectively. He looks to generate more swings and misses against a juggernaut offense on Tuesday.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024: RHP Luis Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea. (4-3, 4.16 ERA)

Despite allowing seven earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in his last start, Luis Gil has been excellent for the Yankees this year. He boasts a 95th percentile .190 xBA and an 89th percentile 29.3 strikeout percentage. He uses his four-seam fastball over half of the time, and opponents are batting just .158 against it with a 30.8 percent whiff rate. It is highly impressive that he is able to maintain those statistics while using the pitch at such a high volume. His changeup and slider are also very strong, with whiff rates of 27 percent and 32.3 percent respectively. He looks to bounce back from his poor outing against the Mets on Wednesday.

Sean Manaea has been better in his last two starts, pitching a combined 10 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts and four runs allowed. He is still having trouble with inducing ground balls, as his percentage is down from 42.4 in 2023 to 32.8 this year. Also, his hard-hit rate is up from 36.4 percent last year to 41.9 percent this year. If Manaea can strike out opponents at a similar rate to his last two starts, then his other issues will not hurt him as much as they have this year.

Players to Watch

Aaron Judge (NYY)

Since June 16, Aaron Judge is batting .300/.364/.750 with three home runs, seven RBIs, and a 212 wRC+. These numbers are similar to his overall season figures, as he is batting .300/.423/.686 with a 206 wRC+ and 5.2 fWAR. Judge also has the best barrel and hard-hit rates in the league, at 28.4 percent and 62.4 percent respectively. In addition, he walks at a 16.9 percent rate and chases at an 18.7 percent rate, showcasing that he is not an easy out by any means. The Mets are using two left-handed starters this series, and Judge is batting .276/.462/.655 with a 209 wRC+ against them. He has played in 21 regular season games against the Mets in his career, and is batting .299 with 10 home runs and 15 RBIs.

Francisco Lindor (NYM)

Since June 17, Francisco Lindor is batting .346/.370/.577 with four extra-base hits and a 171 wRC+. This is not just a flash in the pan for Lindor, as he has an 86th percentile barrel rate of 13.1 percent and a 78th percentile hard-hit rate of 46.4 percent. He now has a 114 wRC+ and 2.9 fWAR on the season, which is a vast improvement from his numbers in April and May. Since joining the Mets in 2021, Lindor has played in 14 regular season games against the Yankees, with a .327 average, 16 hits, four home runs, and 10 RBIs.

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