Emmys update: Competition heats up as first-round voting ends
The fact that the 76th Emmy nominations voting round ended on Monday means that Gold Derby’s users have had over 10 days to make their picks in five categories that were previously not included in our predictions center. After taking very little time to form, these new consensus lineups have remained virtually unchanged for nearly two weeks, presumably because they generally consist of tried-and-true contenders and almost exclusively align with the prospect of repeat wins.
Based on the predictions of all 3,000 of our participating readers, the only major change that has occurred in the five new categories since voting opened is “Top Chef” presenter Kristen Kish’s displacement of Gordon Ramsay (“Next Level Chef”) in the Best Reality/Competition Host lineup. A closer examination of the opinions of our predictor subgroups reveals more discrepancies, including that our editors stand alone in still backing Ramsay and forecasting a second consecutive Best Talk Series win for “The Daily Show” over general favorite “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert.”
Both our experts and Top 24 Users are deviating from the norm by predicting a Best Competition Program nomination for “The Amazing Race” but differ in their opinions regarding whether “Survivor” or “The Voice” is more expendable in that contest. As of now, the experts are also the only group predicting “John Mulaney Presents: Everybody’s in LA” to score a talk series bid (at the expense of 2022-2023 nominee “Late Night with Seth Meyers”).
The editors and Top 24 have now joined the All-Star 24 Users in anticipating dual drama lead wins for “Shōgun” costars Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada. The Top 24 have also conformed to said other two groups’ belief that Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”) will defeat general Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress frontrunner Kali Reis (“True Detective: Night Country”) and share the editors’ opinion that Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) will take the corresponding male lead prize.
Whereas Gunning is back to third place in her overall race after briefly moving up a spot over the weekend, Sawai and Gadd appear to be holding tightly to their newly acquired second place positions. Some more interesting movement occurred in the movie/limited supporting actor race this week as Finn Bennett (“True Detective: Night Country”) and Hugh Grant (“The Regime”) switched places three times in four days, with the former (who has the support of our Top 24 and All-Star 24 Users) now narrowly ranking as a predicted nominee.
It also appears that a major shift is imminent in the Best Drama Actress category given that most of our subgroups are championing Sawai instead of season-long frontrunner Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”). If that race weren’t exciting enough, the experts are keeping things even more interesting by singularly backing Emma Stone (“The Curse”) for the win.
Some currently non-predicted acting contenders who significantly improved upon their odds this week are Mark Duplass (drama supporting actor, “The Morning Show”), Jerry Seinfeld (comedy guest actor, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”), Tom Goodman-Hill (movie/limited supporting actor, “Baby Reindeer”), and Chris Perfetti (comedy supporting actor, “Abbott Elementary”).
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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