Tropical depression could form in Gulf of Mexico this weekend

An area of stormy weather in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may become a tropical depression this weekend while another area of storms in the Atlantic moved over land Friday night, lowering its odds of developing further.

The low pressure system in the Atlantic is centered inland over southeastern Georgia and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the coastal waters off of northeastern Florida and Georgia. The low is expected to drift slowly northwestward or northward Saturday before dissipating tonight.

Forecasters also are watching a broad area of low pressure that was forming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It’s producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system as it moves slowly northwestward. A tropical depression could form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night.

As of 8 a.m., it had a 50% chance of developing in the next two to seven days, slightly lower odds than on Friday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through the end of the weekend.

The next named storm will be Beryl.

The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.

In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.

Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.

Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.

Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.