Two tropical depressions could form, including one near Florida; Alberto poised for Mexico landfall

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Thursday that, in addition to Tropical Storm Alberto which is poised for landfall in Mexico, there’s potential for two tropical depressions to form.

Separate from Alberto, forecasters are watching two other potential systems, one in the Gulf, and one east of the Bahamas.

The latter, currently an area of storminess located about 150 miles east of the northern Bahamas, could affect coastal northern Florida on Friday.

Its odds to developing had jumped to 40% in the next two to seven days, and it now has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves west-northwest, the hurricane center said. The system is likely too far north to impact South Florida.

There’s also a disturbance in the same area of the Gulf of Mexico as Alberto that could become a tropical depression this weekend. As of 8 a.m. Thursday, it had a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 10% chance it the next two days.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, is expected to make landfall early Thursday south of the U.S. border with Mexico.

As of 8 a.m. Thursday, the storm was 255 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, and 25 miles west of Tampico, Mexico, traveling west at 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.

Once inland, Alberto is forecast to weaken quickly and likely dissipate over Mexico by Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center said.

Alberto is a large, slow-moving tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 250 miles north of the center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm warning for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla.

The storm had caused coastal flooding near Galveston, Texas, where storm surge was expected to reach 2 to 4 feet, depending on tide. There was even some street flooding in Louisiana.

Rain in Texas is expected to diminish Thursday, with an inch or less expected, the NHC said.

Inland in Mexico rainfall could continue to be significant and potentially dangerous, given the mountainous terrain in some of the region.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico are possible, with maximum totals of 20 inches in areas with higher terrain, the NHC said. Flash flooding and mudslides are potential hazards.

The 2024 hurricane season, which officially began June 1, is expected to be extremely active.

In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph, and eight to 13 hurricanes. An average year has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

In addition, NOAA has forecast four to seven major hurricanes for 2024, meaning those that are Category 3 or above.

Experts at Colorado State University stated in their 2024 forecast that the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.

Forecasters say that the record-warm water temperatures that now cover much of the Atlantic Ocean will continue into peak hurricane season from August to October. That warm water fuels hurricanes. By early June, the tropical Atlantic was already as hot as it usually is in mid-August — peak hurricane season.

Hurricane season officially ends Nov. 30.

Sun Sentinel staff writer Robin Webb contributed to this report.