Trade Deadline Preview: Outfielders the Guardians Could Target
The Guardians could use someone to hit second or fifth in this lineup
It’s long been discussed, but will this be the summer the Guardians expend some prospect capital or bullpen wealth to acquire a right-fielder who can hit in the middle of a lineup?
This is the third of the articles we have written previewing the trade deadline. Find our coverage of potential starting pitcher trade targets here and potential shortstop trade targets here.
Right now, the Guardians are 15th in MLB with a 91 wRC+ from center fielders and 26th with a 75 wRC+ from right fielders. For the sake of argument, and while acknowledging that acquiring a legitimate centerfielder is often cost-prohibitive, we are going to consider Tyler Freeman as the established solution in centerfield (maybe with some help from Daniel Schneemann and Will Brennan). I will note that it’s not unreasonable for the team to conclude that they have a good chance of addressing their right field needs with some combination of David Fry (projected for a 123 wRC+ for the rest of the season), Brennan (100 ROS wRC+), Schneemann (91 ROS wRC+), Johnathan Rodriguez (92 ROS wRC+), and potentially Jhonkensy Noel (93 ROS wRC+) and George Valera (94 ROS wRC+) as needed down the road. However, Fry and Schneemann aren’t really rightfielders, defensively, Brennan has been average as a hitter and projects to continue as so, Rodriguez has hit everything on the ground, and Noel and Valera haven’t proven anything yet. Personally, I am fine if the team focuses all their energy on getting help for the rotation and lets Brennan, and some combination of Noel and Rodriguez, with Valera in reserve, try to solve the right field issues... IF at least one (preferably two) trade for a good, major league starting pitcher is completed.
It’s not ideal, because we don’t have a true right-fielder projected to be an above average hitter there and the Guardians have a There’s reason to consider upgrading to a proven veteran in right field, and that’s what I’m going to look at for options in the players listed below.
Unrealistic Options:
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox, RHH, CF, 26 years and 10 months old, club options through 2027 average annual value of $8.3 million. ROS wRC+ projection: 124, 13 DRS and 24 OAA in CF for his career.
Analysis: IF the White Sox move Robert, it will be by far the biggest return of this trade deadline. He’s been an amazing centerfielder and 20% above average as a hitter for his career. Those kind of players are very rare. I don’t see any scenario where the Guardians pay the necessary cost for Robert if he is moved, let alone the overage they would be charged as a division rival. But, I’d definitely be there for it if they did, don’t get me wrong.
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres, Switch-Hitter, 31 years and 3 months old, free agent in 2025, owed about $500K, ROS wRC+ projection: 122, -10 DRS and -26 OAA in the outfield for his career
Analysis: Profar’s defensive numbers make him look like he should be playing first base, which doesn’t fly in Cleveland, so they’d have to put up with his poor defense in right field. I put him as an unrealistic option because I don’t think the Padres are going to trade useful pieces, instead, they’ll look to acquire talent for a push for a wildcard. Profar does hit left-handed pitching well and would be a good rental option if for some reason the Padres collapse over the next few weeks.
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros, LHH, RF, 27 years and 5 months old, arbitration eligible and under team control through 2025, ROS wRC+ projection: 150 wRC+, 6 DRS and 1 OAA for 2024 in RF.
Analysis: I almost bumped Tucker down to the next category because I do think the Astros may consider trading him. It’s certainly not likely, however, as they could extend him, and they’ll need an absolute haul to trade an MVP candidate. Why I think this is unrealistic is I can’t imagine the Guardians trading like their top five prospects for one player, and it would take at least that to get a Tucker. It’s hard not to imagine Tucker batting 2nd in the Guardians lineup when you start, so don’t do it.
Realistic But Expensive:
Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics, RHH, RF/DH, 29 years and 7 months old, team control via arbitration through 2027. ROS wRC+ projection: 132 wRC+, -8 DRS and -OAA for his career in RF but he has been at 0 in both spots so far this season.
Analysis: I think the Athletics will move Rooker, because of his age, but it probably will be in the offseason. He’s too old for their timeline, but he is, deservedly, a fan favorite. From reading his Twitter account, fans can see that he’s very analytical and he crushes left-handed pitching. If the Guardians can restore their somehow broken relationship with the Athletics’ front office, I would happily plop Rooker into right-field (poor glove and all) and the fifth spot in the lineup for the rest of the season. It’s going to be a costly deal, however, for an older player. Rooker’s career 33% strikeout rate would be jarring for Guardians’ fans, but it doesn’t bother me when accompanied by his prodigeous power and ability to destroy southpaws. It does mean that his decline, when it arrives, may be steep, however.
Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels, RHH, LF/RF, 30 years and 6 months old, arbitration eligible under team control through 2026, ROS wRC+ projection: 121 wRC+, -7 DRS and 1 OAA in RF for his career.
Analysis: Ward is a proven lefty masher who reliably gets on base and hits the ball hard, who has been remarkably unlucky in batting average on balls and play so far this year. He’s not going to embarrass you as a corner outfielder and his career walk rate is around 10%. You can never predict what an Arte Moreno-led team will do, but Ward SHOULD get traded by a bad Angels’ team. I’ve wanted him on the Guardians FOREVER, and it would make me incredibly happy to see his 12% barrel rate make its way to the Cleveland Clubhouse, but I just don’t know if this move will be a priority for the team.
Ward’s main flaw as a hitter may be a lackluster pull rate. Cleveland has had some success getting hitters to pull the ball, so I think Ward is potentially a guy whom the Guardians could help maximize his hitting production.
Rob Refsnyder, Boston Red Sox, RHH, LF/RF, 33 years and 2 months, club option for 2025 $4.25M left on his deal this season, ROS wRC+ projection: 124, 1 DRS and -3 OAA for his career in RF.
Analysis: Refsnyder is a proven lefty-masher who is hitting like a middle of the order hitter. This is the perfect kind of candidate for Cleveland if they like the guys they have on hand, but it looks like Boston will be firmly in the mix for a playoff spot so acquiring Refsnyder may not be realistic or, if it is, will be an overpay to take a hitter out of the middle of the Red Sox lineup. However, maybe the Red Sox would be interested in a good relief arm and one of the several unproven, upper level outfield options the Guardians have on hand? It’s possible, if Cleveland believes in the veteran stability Refsnyder would offer.
Tyler O’Neill, Boston Red Sox, RHH, RF, 28 years and 11 months old, free agent next season, ROS wRC+ projection: 133, 0 DRS and -1 OAA in RF for his career.
Analysis: O’Neill would have been a good hitter to acquire in an offseason trade, but, again, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox moving him midseason while in a playoff race. Now, maybe Boston has a terrible next four weeks and things change, and a lefty-mashing outfielder who hits well in the middle of the order in O’Neill could be a possibility. For what it’s worth, there have been some rumors of O’Neill being a difficult clubhouse presence in the past, so this may or may not be something the Guardians are willing to consider even if he is available.
Realistic ... But Will They Actually Help?
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays, RHH, 29 years and 3 months old, under team control and arbitration eligible through 2026, ROS wRC+ projection: 124, -5 DRS and 3 OAA in RF for his career.
Analysis: So Arozarena has only an 81 wRC+ this year but only a .207 BABIP and a wOBA about .026 below his xwOBA. His bat speed is still above average (59th percentile) and his launch angle and pulled fly ball rates look fine, while his hard hit rate and exit velocity average have dipped, they are still solid. The 25.5/11.5 K/BB% is right in line with his career norm. So, I suspect that ZiPS is right to expect him to be more of a 124 wRC+ hitter the rest of the season. Will Tampa trade him at the nadir of his value? I doubt it. But they probably would if someone offers them a deal for him as if he's a 124 wRC+ hitter. Would the Guardians do that? Probably not, and given that his value against fastballs is about 10 runs below his career norms, they are probably right not to bet on him. He's also got a reputation as a bit of a hot head, which may not fly in the Cleveland Clubhouse. But, never count out a Cleveland-Tampa trade.
Connor Joe, Pittsburgh Pirates, RHH, RF, 31 years and 5 months old, arbitration eligible and under team control through 2027, ROS wRC+ projection: 112, -6 DRS and -4 OAA in RF for his career
Analysis: I am pretty confident that if the Guardians are willing to consider trading a good relief arm and the Pirates’ choice of Jhonkensy Noel or Johnathan Rodriguez, that this deal would happen (perhaps an additional piece would return to Cleveland). Joe has a career 113 wRC+ vs LHP. He’s not exciting, he’s maybe not that much of an upgrade and it’s fair to wonder how long he is this good. I do wonder if Chris Valaika and the Guardians could get Joe to hit a few more pulled fly balls (something he does fairly well), and I’m aware that the Guardians were interested in Joe when he was with the Rockies. This still doesn’t seem like enough of a needle mover to actually take place.Ian Happ:
Jesse Winker, Washington Nationals, LHH - ah, you know what. I’m not continuing this. Winker is having a good season and hitting lefties well, but he doesn’t seem at all like a Guardians’ guy. I just can’t see it. He will get traded but I’d be SHOCKED if it is to Cleveland.
Mark Canha, Detroit Tigers, RHH, RF, 35 years and 4 months old, free agent next year due about $5.75M for the rest of this season, ROS wRC+ projection: 124, He’s been around a while so it’s fair to say he hasn’t been a good outfielder, but, for what it’s worth, he’s been 3 DRS and 1 OAA above average in RF for his career.
Analysis: I wanted the Guardians to run back the Kole Calhoun experiment with Canha this year, and that take has aged fairly well. Will Cleveland acquire a 35 year old with expectations he’d help down the stretch of a long season and do it by giving prospect capital to a division rival? Highly doubtful, but I think we might all be surprised how much we would enjoy seeing a reliable veteran take our right field AB’s for a playoff run. He is crushing LHP this year at a 152 wRC+ rate, for what it’s worth (113 against lefties for his career).
Summary and Prediction: As you can see, there aren’t a TON of options out there. I chose not to go into options in which the Guardians land prospects (like Heston Kjerstad) because IF they make a move, I think it would be for proven value. It’s not impossible they trade with a team like Baltimore offering a relief arm for a blocked outfielder, but it’s probably not wise to take from the strength of the team (the bullpen) to try to shore up another area where the team is projected to be around average as is.
It feels to me like the Guardians will focus all of their prospect capital on getting pitching help of all shapes and sizes. But, if I had to pick players on this list I could most reasonably see in Cleveland, I’d pick Ward or Canha. Ward would be a lineup upgrade for the next 3 year run, Canha would be a bridge to players the Guardians see as options for 2025 and beyond. I could see them going either way, but I suspect they will hold serve in this area and hope that Brennan/Valera and Noel/Rodriguez, with Fry and Schneemann available as needed, can get the job done.
If it were up to me, I’d go all out to get one of Taylor Ward and Brent Rooker, while keeping an eye on the Robert and Tucker markets if they coalesce at all. Putting one more thumper in this lineup changes everything about its ability to threaten a World Series run in October for me.