Pollster Says Trump Has a ‘Legitimate Shot’ at Winning New York

Last week, J.L. Partners hosted a briefing on the upcoming general election that revealed trends among voters. The briefing began with a presentation of recent polls by John Johnson and Landon Wall, which showed, first and foremost, the impact of the recent conviction of former President Donald Trump.

Forty-one percent of respondents said that the conviction had altered their thinking on the election. But for some of these voters, the conviction actually increased their support for Trump.

Other important factors in the election included “Biden’s poor performance,” “economic / social policy,” “dislike for both candidates,” “Biden’s age,” the “Israel-Palestine conflict,” and support for an independent candidate.

When asked about President Joe Biden’s recent executive order on the southern border, 48 percent of respondents said it was the “right thing to do,” while 28 percent said they “don’t know,” and 23 percent said it was “wrong.” More specifically, 50 percent thought the executive order will not be “sufficient to significantly improve the situation at the border.”

Moreover, Johnson and Wall also showed the strong dichotomy in how Trump is viewed by voters belonging to the Republican and Democratic parties. When asked, “Please summarize your view of Donald Trump in a word,” the predominant answer among Democrats was “evil,” whereas the most common one among Republicans was “American.”

However, when voters were asked the same question about Biden, the predominant answer was the same across party affiliations. Among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, the predominant answer was “old.” The second most frequently used descriptor was also the same among Republicans and Independents, namely “incompetent.”

Following the polling presentation, NBC White House reporter Katherine Doyle chaired a panel discussion featuring former pollster to President Bill Clinton Stan Greenberg, former pollster to President Trump Jim McLaughlin, and political consultant Patrick Ruffini.

When asked about the aforementioned trends, McLaughlin said that “nothing has moved.” He added that Trump still has “significant advantages,” especially “on the issues that people care about most,” such as inflation and immigration. Even on the issue of democracy, McLaughlin pointed out, Trump and Biden are “basically even.”

McLaughlin also remarked that Trump has “a legitimate shot” to win the state of New York, referencing the Siena Poll that placed the former president “within single digits” of Biden. McLaughlin attributed this to what he calls “the triple failures” of having highly unsatisfactory New York Democrats in the high offices of mayor and governor, as well as a Democratic White House.

Ruffini agreed with McLaughlin that cost of living is likely to influence the way states like Virginia and New York will vote. He said inflation really “hits home in the suburbs.”

Moreover, when asked if he was worried about Trump being “within striking distance of a majority of Hispanic voters” and “gaining black voters,” Greenberg affirmed that “Yes,” it does worry him.

He also said that the war in Gaza has been “surprisingly impactful” among Democrat voters, which may end up hurting Biden in November. This is not necessarily because dissatisfied Democrats might vote for Trump instead, but because they might vote for an independent or third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Cornel West.

Greenberg stressed that it is still quite early in the race, and that things might change in the coming months.

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