'A little nerve-wracking': ERCOT talks summer outlook, supply-demand concerns

AUSTIN (KXAN) — The first day of summer is Thursday, and the Energy Reliability Council of Texas expects a tight grid in August and potential supply-demand issues with high temperatures.

August is expected to have a higher risk of tight grid conditions than June or July, specifically between 8-10 p.m. because of lower wind and solar generation, ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said Tuesday.

Dan Woodfin, ERCOT’s vice president of system operations, said his biggest concern is if ERCOT has enough supply to cover demand.

“We’re getting to the point where if we get enough sufficient demand response from the large flexible loads—the crypto miners and other folks that provide significant demand response—we’ll be OK. But we don’t have enough visibility into that as what we would like,” Woodfin said. “Some days that’s a little nerve-wracking.” 

Sufficient generation is expected for most hours, but the highest risk of an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) is after sunset, around 9 p.m., Woodfin said. He said there's an elevated risk of this in August.

Last year, the power grid operator issued 11 conservation appeals, which asked Texans to conserve energy due to demand approaching the amount of available supply.

A new monthly outlook report, which is being used for the first time this summer, helps ERCOT address supply-demand concerns, Woodfin said. The Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy report, which replaced the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, gives a more frequent monthly assessment.

The 2024 summer forecast has above-normal temperatures, but Woodfin said there is a 25% chance of this summer approaching or exceeding 2023 summer temperatures. He said this summer is expected to have a higher drought potential and a greater-than-typical tropical cyclone risk.

ERCOT does not expect widespread transmission reliability issues this summer. In the spring, there were severe weather-caused transmission outages in West Texas, the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Houston and Temple. 

In South Texas, there are constraints expected that could limit ERCOT from using the full amount of generation during high system net loads, Woodfin said. This could increase the risk of emergency alerts or EEAs. 

Woodfin said whether ERCOT has enough capacity depends on the number of outages and the amount of wind blowing or not blowing.