Series Preview: Red-Hot Mets Head to Texas

After Grimace threw out the first pitch at Wednesday’s game, the New York Mets (33-37) have won all five subsequent games. They look to ride the energy of their new unofficial purple mascot as they begin their series against the Texas Rangers (33-38).

While they have similar records, the playoff picture differs between the American League and the National League. The defending World Series Champions are 6 1/2 games out of a Wild Card spot, while the Mets are just 1 1/2 out of one.

The Rangers are also on the heels of a series sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners, so the momentum might favor the Mets heading into the action.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, June 17, 2024: LHP David Peterson (2-0, 4.32 ERA) vs. RHP Jon Gray (2-2, 2.17 ERA)

David Peterson has displayed some encouraging signs in his brief sample this season. One of those signs has been his changeup, which now features over two more inches of vertical drop than last season. Correspondingly, opponents are batting just .091 against the pitch, and he uses it at a 15.5 percent rate. He has also generated an overall ground ball rate of 57.4 percent, essential for his success as a pitcher who primarily relies on the sinker.

Jon Gray has not pitched in lengthy outings since returning from his groin injury but has been solid to begin the season. He now uses his slider as his primary pitch, which has been a very successful adjustment for him, as opponents are batting just .198 against it with a whiff rate of 37.1 percent. Besides that, Gray’s overall profile is not too encouraging for long-term success. His 16th percentile 44.1 percent hard-hit rate and 35th percentile 8.5 percent barrel rate indicate that the hard contact will eventually catch up to him.

Tuesday, June 18, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (4-2, 3.12 ERA)  vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen (4-3, 2.86 ERA)

Luis Severino has continued to perform well in his inaugural season with the Mets. His 4.4 percent barrel rate and 52.9 percent ground ball rate place him in the 89th percentile in each category, showcasing his ability to generate favorable contact. Since his strikeout numbers have been down this year, it’s vital he doesn’t fall victim to good contact from opponents.

Michael Lorenzen has been successful this year, confusing hitters with his seven-pitch repertoire. He has used his four-seam fastball less this year, allowing his auxiliary pitches to gain more spotlight. His changeup and cutter have been effective, with whiff rates of 32.1 percent and 30.4 percent, respectively. As a pitcher with just a 17.9 percent strikeout rate, Lorenzen relies on the deceptiveness of his pitches to avoid barrels, which he has induced at a seven percent rate this year.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.11 ERA) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (2-8, 4.19 ERA)

Sean Manaea has been a bit underwhelming this season. Despite making his sinker his primary pitch, Manaea has an overall ground ball rate of just 34.1 percent, placing him in the 11th percentile. Further, Manaea has allowed hard-hit contact at a 41.1 percent rate as well as a barrel rate of 9.2 percent. The numbers are not all bad for Manaea, as his sweeper has been highly effective, with a .195 opponent average and 43.5 percent whiff rate.

Andrew Heaney has also struggled this year. He offers a four-pitch repertoire: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and a curveball. While Heaney has an 86th percentile 32.6 percent chase rate, he has struggled with a 21st percentile 43 percent hard-hit rate. When combined with his 34.8 percent ground ball rate, the hard contact stands out as a major catalyst for Heaney’s struggles.

Players to Watch

J.D. Martinez (NYM)

Since May 30, Mets slugger J.D. Martinez has been scorching hot, batting .333/.449/.702 with five home runs, 16 RBIs, and a 224 wRC+. Two of those home runs came on Saturday in an offensive onslaught against the Padres. The peripheral numbers back up Martinez’s hot streak, as he has a 98th percentile 18.1 percent barrel rate and an 87th percentile 49.1 percent hard-hit rate. Whether it is for the Mets or another team, he will most certainly impact the playoff race this season.

Josh Smith (TEX)

In June, Josh Smith has seen the ball well, batting .359/.432/.513 with a 170 wRC+, three doubles, and a home run. This hot streak comes in the midst of a breakout season for Smith, who has posted a 1.9 fWAR while batting .294/.384/.436 over a larger sample. The former Yankees prospect demonstrates strong plate discipline, with a chase rate of 23.9 percent and a strikeout percentage of 18.5 percent. While he does not hit the ball hard often, with just a 35.3 percent hard-hit rate, he can hit to all fields to go along with being a difficult batter to retire.

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