UFC Vegas 93 predictions
Flyweights on parade!
OK, that might not be the official tagline for UFC Vegas 93, but it may as well be given the abundance of 125ers competing Saturday. On the men’s side, you have headliners Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira—No. 12 and No. 13 respectively in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings—plus Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson (who somehow made weight despite being 6-feet tall) and Jimmy Flick vs. Nate Maness, while women’s flyweights Carli Judice and Gabriella Fernandes are also in action.
(If you’re wondering what happened to arguably the second-most intriguing matchup of the card, Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Joshua Van, that one is off after Ulanbekov blew weight by over three pounds.)
As we just recently saw with Steve Erceg, all it takes is a couple of solid wins to earn a flyweight title shot, so one contender could see their stock skyrocket with an impressive performance this weekend. Maybe it’s Perez who’s due for a resurgence following a huge knockout of Matheus Nicolau, or it could be the 24-year-old Taira who continues his unblemished march towards UFC gold.
As usual, when keeping your eye on the 125-pound division, it’s best not to blink.
What: UFC Vegas 93
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 15. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN2 and ESPN+.
Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira
By a wide margin, this is toughest test of Tatsuro Taira’s career. It’s easy to imagine Alex Perez’s veteran savvy being too much for the Japanese wunderkind, and if you think Taira is a future title challenger then this is an easy pick. In the UFC, Perez has only lost to champions (Alexandre Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo), a blue-chip prospect (Muhammad Mokaev), and an all-time great contender (Joseph Benavidez). We could look at Saturday’s main event as the moment that Taira staked his claim to belong among those luminaries.
Without overthinking it, Taira is the pick here. Perez is definitely more battle-tested, having tangled with the best 125ers of his generation, but he’s also always had one glaring shortcoming: grappling defense. Anyone who’s watched Taira for two minutes can tell you grappling just happens to be his specialty, which is bad news for Perez.
Even when it’s Perez initiating the grappling, he’s been unable to consistently avoid submission attempts, and Taira will make sure that he has a lot to think about there. It also has to be noted that Taira is freakishly strong, so even if Perez’s technique is on point, Taira might just power through and bully him.
Perez wins a standup battle, but this won’t be standing long enough for that to matter.
Taira by third-round submission.
Pick: Taira
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Miles Johns
Miles Johns is a perfectly adequate all-arounder who takes some time to get his offense going. That won’t cut it against Douglas Silva de Andrade.
Having the ability to put Silva de Andrade on his back is always a plus, and you could see Johns go to the well early as he focuses on neutralizing the Brazilian’s dangerous striking. Johns knows how to fight smart, so he won’t force anything or give Silva de Andrade openings to counter.
Unfortunately for Johns, his lack of next-level finishing ability means that “D’Silva” will be a constant threat to force him into a slugfest. Silva de Andrade will take two to land one, an exchange that often works in his favor. Johns can only play the mouse for so long before the cat gets his claws into him.
After a five-minute feeling-out process, Silva de Andrade turns it up in Round 2 and takes Johns out.
Pick: Silva de Andrade
Timmy Cuamba vs. Lucas Almeida
Has Lucas Almeida learned to stop a takedown? Because if he hasn’t, this is going to be a drag.
It’s no secret Almeida wants to stand and bang. He and his team will be ecstatic if Timmy Cuamba comes out wanting to throw hands, a strategy that will almost definitely backfire on “Twilight.” Though Almeida has failed to impress in his past two outings, when he’s on, he’s a dynamic striker who can finish with a variety of techniques.
When he’s off—off of his feet, to be exact—he’s a liability. As long as Cuamba isn’t overly aggressive and focuses on position over submission, he has a clear path to victory. Takedowns, takedowns, and more takedowns are the order of the day for Cuamba. Back at featherweight, he should have little trouble muscling Almeida to the mat, then rinsing and repeating this sequence until the judges have rendered their decision.
Pick: Cuamba
Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield
One thing you’ve got to give Brady Hiestand credit for, he’s got a ton of heart. What the Ultimate Fighter 29 finalist lacks in experience, he more than makes up for in raw strength and determination. Few fighters will enjoy going into deep waters with Hiestand in the future.
Garrett Armfield is a fighter who won’t mind that scenario playing out. His off-kilter standup style will keep Hiestand guessing, leaving Hiestand little option but to shoot in from long distance. Don’t be surprised if Armfield’s counter wrestling causes Hiestand to be the one fighting off of his back.
Hiestand’s toughness should save him from a finish, but Armfield’s striking will have him cruising to a decision after three rounds.
Pick: Armfield
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Johnson
Not to lump all the fighters from Kazakhstan together, but Asu Almabayev is the latest from that country to exhibit a serious mean streak once that cage door closes. On the feet or on the ground, Almabayev is always looking to finish. He has a daunting challenge ahead of him in bantamweight transplant Jose Johnson.
I still don’t know how the towering Johnson beat the scale Friday, but he overcame that significant hurdle and looks to be one the most unorthodox opponents in the flyweight division. With a 71.5-inch reach, Johnson is capable of stinging the average 125er with a few jabs and straight punches before they’ve even had a chance to gauge distance. He’s also produced some incredible knockouts on the regional scene, though that hasn’t translated inside the octagon just yet.
Almabayev would be wise to take Johnson down and that’s what he’ll do if he feels remotely threatened. Johnson isn’t particularly skilled when it comes to defending takedowns nor submissions, so it’s only a matter of time until Almabayev imposes his will on this fight.
I have Almabayev submitting Johnson late in the first.
Pick: Almabayev
Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt
They might be lacking in name value, but Josh Quinlan and Adam Fugitt are fine choices to open the main card. Mainly because either one of them delivers a Performance of the Night-worthy finish, or they scrape and claw their way to a Fight of the Night bonus.
Fugitt’s pressure-heavy fighting style and Quinlan’s wrestling-based offense should make for a compelling clash of styles. Will Fugitt set the tone early and keep Fugitt from getting out of the starting gate? Or will Fugitt quickly get his hands on Quinlan and grapple him into oblivion?
In this fight, size matters, and the bulkier Quinlan will find a way to work past Fugitt’s punches to secure takedowns. On the mat, a steady diet of ground-and-pound will lead to Fugitt finishing Quinlan in the opening round.
Pick: Fugitt
Preliminaries
Jimmy Flick def. Nate Maness
Gabriella Fernandes def. Carli Judice
Jeka Saragih def. Westin Wilson