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Hot weekend, heavy rainfall possible next week as tropics get active
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(KLFY) -- Hot temperatures for both today and tomorrow with high-pressure building overhead. Highs today will reach the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. The good news is humidity values will remain in the 30-35% range through peak heating of the day, which will keep heat index values from getting too high.
The hot weather continues through tomorrow afternoon with highs once again in the 95-97 degree range.
Deep tropical moisture arrives by Sunday and continues to stream northwestward across the area through much of next week. This deep moisture, along with upper-level energy overhead, will lead to consecutive days of high (60-80%) rain coverage on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall could be possible, especially on Monday, when models latch on to a strong upper-level disturbance overhead. Global models show the possibility of 2-5 inches of rainfall for the Sunday through Thursday period. Some flash flooding could be possible as these tropical rains could dump over two inches of rainfall per hour in isolated spots.
TROPICS
The disturbance, which brought heavy rainfall to Florida, is now pulling away from Florida and moving into the southwestern Atlantic. It remains poorly organized and the NHC is giving it a low chance of development through the next five days.
Global models are still latching onto a monsoonal low pressure, which will move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. Due to its broad nature, it would take a few days to tighten up and consolidate its low pressure. Both the GFS and European model, however, have this occurring once it nears the Mexican coastline by Wednesday/Thursday. A weak tropical storm would be possible at the most and it would pose no threat to Louisiana.
LONGER RANGE
Some models hint at the possibility of more low pressure developing in about a week across the southwestern Caribbean. This low develops into a new storm, moving into the Gulf in the 8-10 day timeframe. This is long-range, however, and we'll have to see if models continue to show this through the next few days.