Is it time for the Guardians to call up George Valera?

The Guardians OF prospect has been on a tear as of late

George Valera’s prospect career has been a bit of a rollercoaster, at least for me personally. At first, he was seen as by a lot of fans as the best outfield prospect since Manny, and a future superstar. FanGraphs had given him a 70 grade hit tool before he even reached A ball, and the power was very evident in both the grainy, yet exciting videos, and the box scores. I know you all remember this video.

In 2021, despite struggling with injuries(an unfortunate ongoing issue with him), Valera appeared to be living up to the hype with his dominant performance at High-A Lake County. He slashed .256/.430/.548 with a 164 WRC+, with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He was then promoted to AA Akron and had just a 104 WRC+ with a 30% strikeout rate, but in a smaller sample size of just 100 plate appearances. He rightfully began to shoot up on prospect lists and had every Cleveland fan extremely excited.

2022 was not a bad year for Valera by any means, he was quite good in AA Akron. He slashed .264/.367/.470 with a 129 WRC+, very good numbers, but not quite superstar numbers. We saw the walk rate go down from 20.9% in High-A to 13.4% in AA, which is still a really good number. Most alarming was that the strikeout rate went from 22% in High-A to nearly 26% in AA.

When Valera got promoted to AAA in 2022, he slashed .221/324/.448 with a 103 WRC+ in 179 plate appearances. This was really the point where I started lowering my expectations for Valera. I had wondered if maybe the hit tool just wasn’t going to be good enough to be an everyday player at the big league level.

The more that Valera played in the upper minors, the more it was clear that he wasn’t going to be the superstar type player that we had all hoped for. He looks to be more of a three true outcomes type player, which is perfectly fine! Three true outcomes is basically a player that will either walk, strikeout, or hit a home run in the majority of their ABs. The Guardians don’t have many players like that, they tried finding one in Estevan Florial, but he wasn’t able to hit enough home runs to make up for the amount of strikeouts. I had hoped that Gabriel Arias could turn into that guy, but like Florial, it just isn’t looking good.

Those same concerns exist with George Valera, but I don’t believe that he will end up like Florial, Arias, and so many failed prospects with high raw power and swing and miss concerns. If you look at his overall performance in AAA the last couple years, it’s nothing to exactly write home about. If we were just going based off results and without context, it would be easy to say that Valera will not be a big leaguer. Let’s go over some of that context.

First and foremost we have to remember that so much of Valera’s performance over the last two years has been impacted by injuries. It’s tough to get going when you have spent so much time injured and haven’t been able to be on the field consistently. Despite that, when I look at Valera’s advanced metrics, I’ve actually been very encouraged. He has always had great plate discipline, but I didn’t know how great it was until looking at his chase rates over the last two seasons. in 2023, his 20.8% chase rate was the best among all Columbus hitters, ahead of guys like Kyle Manzardo and Bo Naylor, who are both rightfully lauded for their plate discipline. In 2024, that chase rate is down to 16.9%!!! That number would put him in the 99th percentile among all MLB hitters. He is showing elite plate discipline right now.

George Valera has always had great raw power, but it’s nice to be able to actually see the exit velocity numbers in AAA. His exit velocity metrics in 2023 was one of the biggest reasons I was high on him going into 2024. Almost all of them were on par with guys like Johnathan Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, and Kyle Manzardo.

Average exit velocity: 90.6

90th percentile exit velocity: 105.1

HardHit%: 49.4%

Barrel%: 12.1%

The only thing that was missing, the big red flag, were Valera’s contact rates. He had a rough 67.4 contact% and just a 76.2% in zone contact rate, which was one of the worst on the Clippers last year. The good news, and a big reason why I think it’s time to call him up, is because those contact rates have improved a ton this season, and more importantly, he’s not sacrificing any power for it. This season, his overall contact% has gone from 67.4% to 76.4%, and his in zone contact% has gone from 76.2% to 81.6%.

After getting off to a slow start this season when returning from injury, he has been on an absolute heater as of late. Since May 26th, he is slashing .326/.426/.558 with a 150 WRC+. In that time, he has an elite 16.7% BB rate and a very respectable 18.5% K rate. His advanced metrics during this stretch are even more impressive.

Chase rate: 13.8!!!

Contact%: 80.3%

Average exit velocity: 94 mph!!!

90th percentile exit velocity: 109.2!!!

Barrel%: 15.2!!!

HardHit%: 51.5%

So his contact rates AND his exit velocity metrics have been better this season, while also improving his chase rate.

In no way am I saying that George Valera is a perfect prospect. He strikes out and whiffs a lot, he’s never going to hit for a high average, and hits way more groundballs than you’d like. Fortunately he has lifted the ball enough to keep a solid barrel rate despite the high groundball rates. The injuries are also really concerning, and it’s part of the reason why I believe they need to call him up ASAP. He is in his last option year, which means that next season they will not be able to option him to AAA without exposing him to waivers. In a perfect world, we could be patient and let him get comfortable and spend all season in AAA, but they will be forced to make a decision on him soon. With the improvement in contact rates, plate discipline, and exit velocities this season, I believe he has earned a shot to be our everyday RF.