Emmys update: HBO movie ‘The Great Lillian Hall’ comes on strong
Since premiering on May 31 (the exact cutoff date for 76th Emmys eligibility), HBO’s “The Great Lillian Hall” has become an undeniably strong contender in this year’s wide-open Best TV Movie race. In the past week alone, its Gold Derby program category odds jumped from 40/1 to 18/1 while lead and supporting cast members Jessica Lange and Kathy Bates both moved closer to predicted nominee status.
“The Great Lillian Hall” has found some of its greatest support among our team of in-house editors, more than half of whom are officially on board with it and Lange being nominated. Bates – who held 100/1 general odds until last Thursday and now sits at 62/1 – is on track to at least crack said subgroup’s movie/limited supporting actress lineup very soon.
Our editors’ consensus picks have indeed changed quite a bit in the last week, with the most noticeable developments involving newly predicted winners Richard Gadd (movie/limited actor, “Baby Reindeer”) and Claire Foy (drama guest actress, “The Crown”). Foy has topped her category’s general ranking for weeks, even as the editors initially backed Sarah Paulson (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”). They are also the first of our subsets to predict nominations for funnymen Paul W. Downs (“Hacks”) and Bruce Dern (“Palm Royale”).
Looking at our other predictor groups, the Top 24 Users are now the first to forecast a Best Comedy Series nomination for “The Gentlemen,” while the All-Star 24 Users stand alone in expecting dual wins for “Shōgun” leads Anna Sawai and Hiroyuki Sanada. Although neither “Shōgun” star improved upon their standing in our combined predictions this week, the opposite can be said of supporting players Moeka Hoshi and Tadanobu Asano and guest actress Yuko Miyamoto.
Other already predicted nominees who recently climbed higher in the ranks include the drama series “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” and performers Ryan Gosling (comedy guest actor, “Saturday Night Live”) and Mark Duplass (drama supporting actor, “The Morning Show”). 2021-2022 guest nominee and current hopeful Jane Adams (“Hacks”) rose above her 100/1 odds this week while her show inched a bit closer to the top Best Comedy Series slot by attracting another 1% of the win votes previously held by “The Bear.”
With the release of the first-round Emmy ballots just a few days away, it’s clear that a majority of our users are now focused on manifesting large nomination hauls for the programs they care most about rather than spreading the wealth with their picks. This is to be expected at this point in any Emmys season, as are some major consensus shifts once nominations voting concludes two weeks from now.
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
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