Are the Mavericks really going to get swept? Don't bet on it

I don’t blame anyone already putting in bets for a Boston Celtics sweep over the Dallas Mavericks after two games of the NBA Finals.

On their swift descent into an 0-2 hole, the Mavericks have appeared just as outmanned in real life as they did on paper going in to the series. The individual superpowers of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have not in fact been enough to overcome the collective talent of the Celtics.

However, while I don’t expect the Mavericks to suddenly make me a believer when the action shifts to Dallas, I’m not in a rush to hammer those surging +275 odds on a 4-0 result. The Mavericks have been dominated, but they aren’t nearly as bad as they’ve looked in Games 1 and 2.

Despite 30-point performances from Doncic in the first two games, the Mavericks have been unable to score with Boston because his supporting cast has failed him. After shooting 37% from three all postseason entering the finals with just two games of worse than 30% shooting, the Mavericks have shot worse than 30% in both games of the finals for a combined 25% from three.

Boston’s defense certainly deserves some credit for that — it’s the best defense Dallas has played all postseason. But many of those looks were shots the Mavericks hit in previous series, including the conference finals against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who had a better defensive rating than Boston in the regular season.

If Doncic continues getting his guys decent looks, we should expect them to hit more at home, where Dallas is favored for Game 3 Wednesday.

It’s also hard to expect Kyrie Irving to remain as ineffective as he’s been thus far. Even against elite defenders like Jrue Holiday. Only once in Irving’s playoff career has he been held under 20 points in three straight games; during his first appearance in 2015, with an injury forcing him to miss time between those games. Irving won’t have a third straight sub-20 game this series. He’s a good defense beater. His signature game is on the way.

With improvement from Irving and more help from the supporting cast, it’s possible Dallas still loses the next two games simply because it can’t stop Boston’s plethora of offensive talent. But a team prone to falling in love with the three like the Celtics is always a bad shooting night away from giving its opponent a chance. Dallas didn’t take advantage in Game 2 when the Celtics had their second-worst deep shooting performance of the playoffs. I expect a different result at home.

Especially if Kristaps Porzingis is limited with another injury, which would help shrink the floor for Dallas’ defense.

There hasn’t been a sweep in the NBA Finals since the Golden State Warriors took down the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2018. Before that, it was an 11-year gap between when the San Antonio Spurs swept the Cavs in 2007. Are the Celtics that good? And are the Mavericks that bad? My guess is no. Even the eighth-seeded Miami Heat found a way to win a game against the Denver Nuggets last year.

Dallas won’t dig its way back to win a title, but let’s not overreact to two games. The series is favored to end in five games at +175 odds for a reason.