Orioles reset: Offense is down across MLB. But not in homer-crazed Baltimore.
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Corbin Burnes isn’t easily impressed.
As one of baseball’s best pitchers, the Orioles ace earned the confidence he carries with himself on a daily basis. He once said he believes he has the “advantage over every lineup.”
But even Burnes is impressed by what Baltimore’s offense is doing this season.
“We don’t miss too many mistakes,” Burnes said. “I think that’s what makes the best teams offensively. It seems like any good arm we’ve come across, even a guy that’s kind of rolling, if he makes a bad pitch, we seem to capitalize and get going after that. For me, that’s what a good offense is.”
Offense across Major League Baseball is down this season, but that trend hasn’t taken hold in Baltimore, where fans in the outfield seats should stay off their phones with the amount of bombs the Orioles are hitting this season.
“I just think the pitching, stuff-wise, it’s so hard to hit,” manager Brandon Hyde said when asked how his team has staved off the offensive drought. “Pitching is just really, really hard now. It’s tough to hit. I think our guys are doing an amazing job of approaching each starter every single night, trying to beat the starter, being unselfish in their at-bats but also taking really good swings on mistakes.”
It’s not hyperbole to say the Orioles are the best hitting team in baseball. They are, at the very least, the best slugging club in the sport.
The average MLB team is scoring 4.34 runs per game — down from 4.62 last season — but the Orioles lead the majors at 5.17 per contest. If that pace continues, it would be the fifth-best in Orioles history, behind four seasons all in the steroid era.
While Gunnar Henderson’s 21 home runs and Adley Rutschman’s .306 average lead the way, the depth of the Orioles’ lineup is causing headaches for opposing pitchers. Seven hitters entered Monday with an OPS over .750: Henderson, Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Ryan O’Hearn, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser.
In the case of the Orioles, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts — even if the parts are quite good.
“It’s deep,” said O’Hearn, who sports an .833 OPS after his go-ahead two-run double in Monday’s 5-2 win. “It’s just a testament to how many good hitters we have. It’s a tough lineup to navigate. Maybe your top two guys are having an off night or something, there’s other guys in the lineup that can pick us up and help the O’s win.”
Offensive output across the league has fluctuated over the past 15 years since the steroid era because of increased velocity, improved pitch movement and seemingly year-by-year alterations to the baseball by MLB. But through the first two-fifths of the season, offense is way down, even for modern standards.
Entering Monday, the average team is hitting 1.04 home runs per game, down from 1.21 in 2023 and the lowest since 2015. Batting average is down to .240 from .248 last year. If the current average holds, it would be the worst since the .237 mark hitters posted in 1968 — known as the “Year of the Pitcher” that resulted in MLB lowering the mound to boost offense.
The .389 slugging percentage (down from .414) is the lowest since 2014, while the .699 OPS (down from .734 in 2023) is the majors’ worst since 1989. Offense does tend to pick up in the summer as the weather warms, but even with that, it appears 2023 could go down as one of the worst offensive seasons MLB has seen in most Orioles players’ lifetimes.
The Orioles, meanwhile, are tearing the cover off the ball as other teams are floundering. In addition to scoring, Baltimore leads the majors in home runs with 104 — six more than the next-best New York Yankees. Baltimore’s .453 slugging percentage ranks first by 17 points and would be the franchise’s second highest behind only the .472 mark from 1996. They also rank third in OPS at .763 and first in OPS+ — which normalizes OPS across the league and adjusts for park factors — at 120, meaning Baltimore’s hitters, on the whole, are 20% better than league average.
“It says that if you look at the stats and what we’re slugging, we’re hitting a lot of homers, we’re driving the baseball,” Hyde said. “We have guys up and down the order that can hit the ball out of the ballpark, but also we can run. It’s nice to have a little bit of both up and down the order. We’re balanced, too. Right and left, these guys are doing damage.
“We’re tough to pitch to. It’s a really good offense that presents a lot of problems for teams.”
While they haven’t been wholly immune to cold stretches, the Orioles’ offense has been consistent for most of the season. The cliche that hitting is contagious is one the club’s sluggers believe.
“If you see your buddies getting hits and doing well, obviously you think you can do the same,” O’Hearn said. “If guys have great at-bats, a pitcher throws more pitches, and ultimately that’s the goal — to get the other team to throw as many pitches, use as many pitchers as possible.”
The most surprising part of the offensive success is the power surge. Baltimore ranked 17th in the majors with 183 long balls last year. The club’s pace of 259 this season would break the franchise record of 257 set by the 1996 team led by Brady Anderson, Rafael Palmeiro and Cal Ripken Jr.
O’Hearn didn’t know the Orioles led the majors in homers — perhaps a reason why they are.
“I think our offense can get you in multiple ways,” said O’Hearn, who is one of six hitters with nine or more long balls this year. “It doesn’t have to be by the home run. Home runs are obviously great. We just try to find a way to win every night. I didn’t know we led the league in homers. That’s awesome, but that’s not our goal. Our goal is to win games. We have a strong offense, and if we can get you multiple ways, it’s good for us.”
The main reason the Orioles are homering so often is the growth of power from their young players. Henderson, who blasted 29 last season, ranks second in the majors in homers and is on pace for 52. Rutschman, who hit 20 last year, is already at 13 and on pace for 32. Westburg, who was a part-time player in 2023, has flashed the same power he displayed in the minor leagues with 10 long balls.
“I feel like it’s a testament to all of us getting more experience in the big leagues,” Henderson said. “We’re a pretty young team, somewhat. It’s just the experience. We’re putting together good at-bats, and obviously the power’s coming with it.”
What’s to come?
A homestand against two of the National League’s best teams before a much-deserved day off.
The Orioles welcome the Atlanta Braves (35-28) to Camden Yards for a three-game set beginning Tuesday before hosting the reigning NL-champion Philadelphia Phillies, who own baseball’s best record at 45-20.
It appears Baltimore’s rotation is remaining on turn with journeyman Albert Suárez, prospect Cade Povich and southpaw Cole Irvin starting the three games versus the Braves. If that maintains throughout the homestand, it’s possible ace Corbin Burnes, who delivered his ninth straight quality start Monday, would pitch opposite Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
After the homestand, Baltimore will be off Tuesday for its first day off since May 30 before playing 13 straight days.
The Orioles swept the Rays in a 4-game series for the first time at "The Trop." Corbin Burnes was, well, Corbin Burnes. Gunnar Henderson was, well, Gunnar Henderson.
On all this and more from another impressive win from a red-hot Orioles club: https://t.co/GRn405RCcm
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) June 11, 2024
What was good?
The effort.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball for 17 years. They’ve made the playoffs five straight seasons and are coming off a 99-win campaign last year. At 31-35 after a four-game sweep at the hands of the Orioles, the Rays look like a completely different team, and, frankly, it doesn’t appear to be fazing them as they play lackluster baseball.
The Orioles, meanwhile, have experienced two straight years of positive vibes, and it doesn’t appear as if that’s changing anytime soon. It’s hard not to conclude their high-effort style — sprinting down the first base line, taking the extra base at every opportunity and grinding out at-bats — isn’t the defining feature of this team’s culture.
“I’m really proud of our team just from the standpoint that our guys show up every single day and they’re ready to go,” Rutschman said after Sunday’s win. “Our guys don’t take at-bats off, they don’t take days off.”
What wasn’t?
The takes about Baltimore’s bullpen.
Sure, Yennier Cano hasn’t been as dominant as last season. Craig Kimbrel isn’t Félix Bautista. The middle relief could be bolstered at the deadline. But any current criticism of the Orioles’ bullpen must include the massive caveat that it’s been one of the majors’ best this season with a 3.29 ERA.
During the eight-game road trip versus the Toronto Blue Jays and Rays, the Orioles’ bullpen didn’t surrender an earned run in 22 innings, allowing only 14 hits and six walks. The lone run it allowed was on the walk-off hit Kimbrel allowed Wednesday, which was partially caused by his own throwing error.
It’s time to start adjusting our priors about Baltimore’s bullpen.
On the farm
Povich, the Orioles’ No. 1 pitching prospect, was promoted last week to make his MLB debut. While it was far from perfect, the southpaw pitched into the sixth inning and impressed his skipper.
As Povich pitched against big league hitters, the Orioles’ Nos. 2 and 3 arms on the farm dominated minor league batters. Chayce McDermott, who Baseball America ranks as Baltimore’s eighth-best prospect, pitched six innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday, striking out eight batters to improve his strikeout rate to 34.7%. Seth Johnson, the Orioles’ No. 9 prospect, struck out 12 batters in 7 2/3 innings across two outings last week.
Baltimore acquired all three pitching prospects at the 2022 deadline when it traded away closer Jorge López and first baseman Trey Mancini.
Braves at Orioles
Tuesday, 6:35 p.m.
TV: MASN
Radio: 97.9 FM, 101.5 FM, 1090 AM