Matt Brown explains what Dustin Poirier needs to do to beat Islam Makhachev at UFC 302
In many ways, Dustin Poirier is playing with house money when he faces Islam Makhachev in UFC 302’s main event.
On paper, Poirier probably didn’t do enough to earn a title shot after suffering a knockout loss to Justin Gaethje this past July followed by a win over lower-ranked Benoit Saint Denis in March. But timing and opportunity ended up favoring Poirier after UFC 300 left Arman Tsarukyan unable to make a quick turnaround and Gaethje reeling from a knockout loss of his own to Max Holloway.
As Poirier prepares for his third chance at becoming undisputed UFC lightweight champion, Matt Brown understands the gravity of the situation, but he also knows “The Diamond” shines brightest when he’s being counted out.
“I think Poirier might do a lot better than people think,” Brown said on The Fighter vs. The Writer. “Him winning against Islam, we all know it’s an uphill battle and it’s a bad matchup for him. We’ve already seen this. But Poirier, we all know he’s a guy that’s going to surprise people. He knows what he’s getting into this time.
“It’s probably his last title shot. It might be his last fight if he loses, who really knows. He might have a few more left in him or whatever. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was his last one if he lost.”
When it comes to Poirier’s strategy for the fight, Brown says it can’t just be “stop the takedown,” because Makhachev is such a dominant grappler.
Brown believes that if Poirier stands a chance to dethrone Makhachev, he has to concentrate more on his offense than his defense.
“For Dustin, you’ve got to keep the middle, you’ve got to keep the center of the octagon,” Brown explained. “You know that’s where Islam is going to try to put you up against the cage. You’ve got to keep the pressure on Islam. You know he’s going to shoot at some point, 99 percent chance — let’s try to make him shoot versus allowing him to decide when he wants to shoot. We don’t want to sit back and pepper and wait for him to shoot. We kind of [want to] see the old stick and move thing, where you’re kind of waiting on that guy to shoot and hopefully you’re able to sprawl away from it or stop it against the cage.
“If I’m Dustin’s team, I’m saying you push Islam back and make him shoot on you. He’s going to shoot one way or another. Let’s make him do it. Let’s force him into that situation, because what Islam wants is to set it up. He wants a clean shot. He wants to get in a little bit of striking, make you think he’s going to strike and threaten you with the striking a little bit, and then go underneath for a shot and push you against the cage. That’s his game plan. So if I’m Dustin, especially with Dustin’s style, you pressure Islam until he’s forced to do it uncomfortably, so it’s not a clean shot.”
Brown knows from personal experience what happens when you value defense over offense against a grappling-heavy opponent.
Despite holding the record for the most knockouts in UFC welterweight history, the recently retired veteran pointed directly to his 2016 fight against Demian Maia, where he spent far too much time thinking about what his opponent was going to do versus what he should be doing to win.
“On the feet, I didn’t fight like myself because I was trying to move my feet to stay away from where [Maia] could do the takedowns,” Brown said. “There’s a lot more to it than that, but particularly on the feet, and at the one time that I did come forward and threw a big shot and I dropped Demian, I saw his eyes roll back in the back of his head, I hadn’t trained to be offensive.
“So I had a split second where I had to decide what to do right then, but my mind, over in the six, eight, 10 weeks of training camp, my brain wasn’t programmed to do that. So I took my time and hesitated a little bit. So I’m saying Dustin’s strategy that I’m imploring for him is based off my own experience. You do you and do it so good that he has to react to you.”
As much as Makhachev has improved his striking in recent years, which led to a vicious head kick knockout over Alexander Volkanovski this past October, his foundation still lies in wrestling and grappling.
Knowing that Poirier’s best chance to win will be on the feet, Brown expects it’s only a matter of time before Makhachev hunts for the takedown, but how it happens could determine the outcome of the fight.
“I can’t repeat it enough times: Islam is going to shoot on Dustin. That is his game plan,” Brown said. “The chances that Islam’s strategy is to stand with Dustin and test his standup skill is slim to none. If you’re in Dustin’s camp, you already know what the game plan is.
“So are you going to allow him to do that the way he wants to do it, or are you going to force him to do it so it turns out to be not a clean shot, or in the rhythm that Islam wants or the flow that he wants?”
Then again, you know what they say about “the best laid schemes of mice and men.” In this case, that means no matter how carefully Poirier maps out his strategy, something could still go wrong.
In this case, Brown admits that likely just means Makhachev is the better fighter and is going to win regardless of how well-prepared Poirier might be on June 1.
“You could do everything exactly the way you’re supposed to, and the guy’s f*cking better,” Brown said. “That’s one of the toughest parts about this sport. We do all this hard work and we’re grinding, we’re sacrificing time with the family, we’re sore, we’re tired, we’re beat up, we’re injured, and you don’t even know if it’s going to f*cking play out for you.”