Tracking the Tropics: Atlantic hurricane season 2024

01.06.2024 05:28

Klfy.com

LAFAYETTE, La. (KLFY)-- The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and News 10 wanted to make sure you get the latest information to keep you and your family safe. News 10 discussed every step throughout the process from preparing for the storm to insurance claims for storm damage.

What happened in 2023

2023 was an active hurricane season. It ranked fourth in terms of named storms with 20. Here are all the tracks from all the tropical storms, tropical depressions and hurricanes that we saw in the season. There were a few storms across the Gulf. One hit Florida, but across much of that Atlantic, that's where it was busy.

A lot of storms actually developed across the main development region. And then these storms moved to the north, recurred to near Bermuda and continued to move out to sea. The reason why that happened is because we had that big dome of high pressure right across the heartland. That's why people saw the record-breaking heat much of last summer with that high pressure right overhead.

So it led to the heat. But one thing it did do, it protected us. For many tropical systems, hurricanes cannot move into high pressures. So they move around the high pressures. The low pressure was more across the East Coast and all those storms went to meet that low pressure, which is why they curved off to the north. So that's why 2023 was busy, but it was generally quiet for the Gulf of Mexico.

2024 could be totally different. It is expected to be another active hurricane season.

2024 Outlook

The 2024 hurricane season forecast will be above normal and that is coming from Colorado State University and NOAA.

The main reason is because La Nina will be returning so that means less wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean. This chart shows past La Nina years with above normal activity, but an above normal season doesn't mean there will be lots of landfalling hurricanes. Many of them may stay out in the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures are already very warm as well.

Of course, the Live Doppler 10 Weather Team will be watching it very closely.

Storm Names

Now, The National Hurricane Center originally began putting out names for storms in 1953, but the names are now maintained and update through a strict procedure by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization.

The names are used in rotation and recycled every six years, so the same list that was used in 2018, will now be used this year in 2024. The only time a name is taken off the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that using the name in the future could be insensitive.

Here's the full list of the Atlantic hurricane names for 2024:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Milton
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

Extended Interview: Dr. Phil Klotzbach with Colorado State University

Dr. Phil Klotzbach is from Colorado State, one of the best when it comes to hurricane season outlooks. Colorado State is predicting and forecasting a very active season.

"The extremely warm waters and the La Nina are the two primary reasons," Klotzbach said. "But if we look at basically how the various climate models are forecasting that to basically impact other things, it looks like a very vigorous West African monsoon. So basically the thunderstorm complexes, otherwise known as easterly waves coming off the coast of Africa are likely to be quite robust this year. And when they're stronger, that tends to help spin storms."

"Also, just the low level winds that are being forecast coming up should be promote basically just kind of low level spin in the tropical Atlantic and in the Caribbean to kind of help basically when the systems come out, more likely to basically spin up into storms, basically just everything right now is pointing towards a very busy season," he added. "We're always looking kind of to see, is there any kind of smoking gun that might make the season less active than we anticipate at this point? We really don't see very much. We put out our first forecast April 4th, but with our June 11th that they really anticipate any major changes."

When you get those seasonal outlooks, it is total storms for the season; that's not necessarily landfalling hurricanes. Majority of those may not even impact the United States.

"So on average, about one in every four hurricanes hits the U.S. But there are some years where it's a lot more in some years a lot fewer in the ratio," Klotzbach said. "Basically, our best hope is to have a year like 2010 or 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic and not one at the U.S. So what we do, in addition to forecasting the basically basin wide activity, we also forecast effectively wind energy in the western half of the basin, the ratio of basically the western half to the base and Y total tends to be a little bit higher in like a year, which is what we expect for this year, primarily due to the fact the Caribbean becomes a lot more active. And by definition the Caribbean is in the western half of the basin. So when you make conditions more conducive in the Caribbean, that obviously increases the threat to that region. But of course they can also increase the threat, you know, up into the Gulf of Mexico, up in the East Coast as well. Certainly a lot of storms to form in the Caribbean do unfortunately, work their way northward up into the Gulf."

News 10 got to hear the pre-seasonal forecast, now Klotzbach shared when the next forecast will come.

"We'll update the forecast on June 11, and we'll have two additional updates on the 9 of July and final update on the 6 of August," Klotzbach said. "And obviously, hurricane season starts June 1, but it really doesn't ramp up until August. So it's kind of August. The August update gives us one last chance to kind of fine tune the numbers. About 95% of all your major hurricane activity, your Category three, four or fives historically occurs after the 1 of August."

Safety and Preparedness

It's always good to be prepared, especially when the storm is approaching. Before the storm, know your flood zone. Review those insurance policies and you need to prep your home and yard as well, tie down loose objects, trim the trees and board the windows and assemble those storm kits. Now, during the storm, you feel your bathtub with water so you could have it stay indoors, away from windows and those doors for sure, because in terms of high winds, a glass can become a projectiles charge of batteries, portable chargers, get that cool air in beforehand because you will likely lose power.

And of course, download the scale of white weather apps. You can continue to get that information stream after the storm. Listen for more water advisories, Watch for downed trees and power lines. Stay out of those flood waters is probably safe. Just do not travel until your area is declared safe. Generator safety. You have to be careful with these generators.

Read the instruction manuals before you use them. Do not run the generator indoors in a garage or any enclosed area, 20 feet from your home is where it's supposed to be. Turn generator off when refueling allow to cool for 15 to 20 minutes. Do not overload the power supply and it's always a good idea to get that generator serviced before a storm approaches your area.

The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety released a report showing Louisiana moved into the top five states for hurricane preparedness. In fact, Louisiana is one of the most improved states. Researcher, Ian Giammanco, said Louisiana is making progress on withstanding damage from storms.

"Louisiana, one, adopted the latest building codes, the international residential code, but also made some pretty good strides to gain some more points, and that's done wonders to push them into the top five for the first time," Giammanco said.

With help from the insurance institute of business and home safety, the state of Louisiana created the Fortify Homes Program. That program gives up to $10,000 to homeowners who strengthen their roofs to fight against hurricane-forced winds.

"If we can put this program in and sustain it for the years to come, we can maintain a very healthy private insurance market and that's actually the best for all of us," Giammanco said.

The Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Director, Jacques Thibodeaux, said with hurricane season just a couple of months away, its important for residents to prepare now.

"The chance of a storm hitting us is always pretty high," Thibodeaux said. "We've learned a lot of lessons going all the way back to Katrina, and Rita and Gustav and Ike and most recently Laura, Delta, Zeta, and now hurricane Ida. What we emphasize to everyone is always have a plan."

"As a state agency, we are well versed and well linked to all the 64 parishes and all the municipalities out there," Thibodeaux added. "If you hear an elected official give you advice please made sure you take heed and everyone be safe for hurricane season."

Tips and Resources from LUS

The Lafayette Utilities System has lots of tips and resources for people to be prepared for any storms that might head our way.

"Yeah, we just want to come out, you know, especially before hurricane season starts this Saturday," Heidi Tweedel with LUS said. "We are ahead of schedule and have our hurricane handbook ready for this season. It can be picked up at our two customer service locations at your local library and at city Hall. And it's also available on our website for a digital download."

One of the most important parts of this hurricane handbook is how to prepare before a storm.

"I know a lot of people think after a storm, 'Oh man, I should have had flood insurance.' So I encourage people start looking for that now, especially since it takes 30 days for a policy to go into effect," Tweedel said. "Something that we thought of two weeks ago in those storms. If you have any branches that are low hanging or maybe day that are over your roof or over any vehicles trim those before a storm comes, just to eliminate any possible damage and also do an assessment of your property if there are any loose items that are around that could potentially become hazards as they get picked up in the wind, start securing them or bringing them inside now?"

There are, of course, plenty of things you can do beforehand to prepare for those storms and strong winds, but after the fact, power outages, obviously that's very common. People can use their My Account with LUS to keep track of where those are.