Donald Trump Is Polling Better Than Ever In His Political Career – And Here’s The Proof
At no other time in President Trump’s political career have his poll numbers been as good as they are now. Not at this stage of the campaign in 2020, not even in 2016. Currently, President Trump commands a significant lead – somewhere between 2 and 6 points, per the RCP average – over Joe Biden in the national polls. Good as those numbers are, they belie even better results when broken down by swing state: according to the latest RCP figures, the 45th President beats Biden by 4 and 12 points in the seven most competitive battleground states this cycle: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Nevada was a state that was considered safely Democratic as recently as 2020. The Silver State has not been won by a Republican since George Bush eked out a 3 point victory over John Kerry back in 2004. This was not a state that pundits considered would ever become competitive again, given the changing demographic realities on the ground — and the Democratic Party’s previous monopoly over Hispanics, a group that represents an outsized portion of Nevada’s voters in recent years. But President Trump has defied all expectations: he now leads there by anywhere between 5 and a 13-point margin – putting him safely beyond the margin of error. In addition, the presidential frontrunner commands significant leads in both Georgia (+4.0) and Arizona (+4.1), two states that were subject to widespread voter fraud that unfairly turned the tables to Biden’s advantage four years ago.
North Carolina, once considered an intensely competitive battleground that Trump just squeaked by in his previous two presidential runs, is now safely in the Republican’s corner – so much so that most pundits have already written it off as being safely red, even though Obama carried the state in 2008.
Perhaps most significantly of all, formerly competitive states like Florida (+11.0) and Ohio (+10.0), are no longer even being counted as battlegrounds. The 45th President’s lead is so massive in those two states that they are now being grouped in the same category as states like Texas and Kentucky, which President Trump easily carried in both previous cycles, as being well out of Biden’s reach.
The verdict explaining this momentum is clear: if the election were held today, President Trump would win by a larger electoral margin than 2016 and amass more popular votes than he did in 2020. Today, the President can safely bet that he will win all the above swing states, cruising to at least a 312 to 226 electoral college victory. And that analysis discounts states like Minnesota, a state that Reagan could not even carry in his landslide victory in 1984, where polling now showcases President Trump behind by a measly two points.
If the election were held today, the President would easily win all the competitive battleground states (WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV), cruising to at least a 312 to 226 electoral college victory (outpacing his historic 304 to 227 victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016). There is a possibility that President Trump can also pick off states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Virginia, and even New Jersey — and possibly New York, given his current momentum.
So too does the analysis disregard states like Maine, New Hampshire, and even New Jersey, where Biden’s “lead” in at least two of those three states has shrunken to within the margin of error. Recent polling out of the Garden State would likewise suggest the 45th President has more than a fighting chance: he’s behind by only 5 points there according to the Emerson College Poll from March. This is a lead that has likely evaporated further still in the wake of the historic presidential rally President Trump held earlier this month in Wildwood, that broke records for the largest presidential rally in state history.
To put matters into perspective, at this point in the 2016 race, the Real Clear Polling average had placed Clinton up over Trump by a whopping 20 points. This advantage at the time included states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where the RCP final polls before Election Day had Clinton anywhere between a 2- and 8-point lead. And those margins held steady despite the normal tightening that invariably occurs in the weeks leading up to any presidential election. Six months out from Election Day in 2016, however, RCP had Clinton trouncing Trump by most polls – further underscoring the significance of the shift that has occurred in President Trump’s favor over the last eight years.
Similarly, in 2020, RCP polling had Biden forecasted with a seven-point lead over Donald Trump heading into Election Day. That Biden margin had generally remained consistent, with some expected tightening, in the months leading up to Election Day. The polling at the time had Biden winning states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and further predicted him carrying states like Arizona, Florida, and Nevada. Now, four years later, every single one of those states are thoroughly out of Joe Biden’s reach, who languishes behind President Trump by margins far worse than Hillary Clinton did at this same juncture in the campaign some four years earlier, according to statewide RCP polling averages.
Now, all that is not to suggest polling is the be and end all – far from it. Experience would show just how easily the polls can be rigged in favor of the Regime-approved candidate (as was the case for Clinton), or, if polling fails, how the Election itself might be rigged in favor of the Regime-approved candidate (as was the case for Biden). Nevertheless, President Trump’s new campaign slogan “too big to rig” has more going for it than simply being another catchy slogan – and reason as well to be hopefully optimistic.
As we approach the summer months, we enter down the final stretch of the 2024 cycle; while opportunities abound for the Regime to manipulate and sabotage the results of 2024, much as they did in 2020 with the COVID-lockdowns and George Floyd riots, those odds become less and less as we move closer to November. Why? For no simpler reason that it is much, much harder to gaslight a population with manipulative propaganda into believing an election was won by a candidate who allegedly commanded a ten-point advantage in the lead-up to Election Day than with the non-Regime approved candidate who nonetheless is up in virtually every key battleground state, well outside the margin of error, six months out from the election.
Now, that is not to say such manipulation is implausible; rather, that commentary merely underlines the difficulties the Regime will face in selling to the population their preferred electoral outcome, if and when they choose to once again meddle with the election procedures. In other words, even the best propaganda in the world will run into significant challenges thwarting the reality on the ground. That is not to disregard it as a possibility (the likeliest scenario is that it will happen, and we have not even seen the worst of it yet); but merely to highlight the importance of good polling and the fanfare that has so far helped fuel the President’s record-breaking rally sizes, all of which in turn helps shape public perception that President Trump’s movement must be undefeatable.
In politics, perception many times is reality – or becomes reality soon enough. Whenever reality and perception align perfectly, as it does this year with President Trump’s 2024 campaign, it creates a political juggernaut. And that is exactly what accounts for President Trump’s unprecedented polling this many months out from November. And that is exactly what President Trump’s 2024 campaign is: a political juggernaut — one sustained by historic momentum that will likely never be seen again in our lifetimes.
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