GDP size, per capita income rise in FY24

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income increased in dollar terms during 2023-24, indicating a revival in the country’s overall output compared to the previous year.

However, the economy’s size remains lower than $375.449 billion recorded in FY22, indicating that GDP growth has slowed under the PMLN-led coalition government. On Wednesday, the National Accounts Committee (NAC) approved these figures in a meeting chaired by Planning Commission Secretary Awais Manzur Sumra.

The size of the economy went up to $374.903bn in FY24 from $338.150bn in FY23. The increase indicates that growth is mostly driven by the country’s unprecedented inflation.

The committee approved the overall final annual GDP growth during FY22 at 6.18pc, a rapid expansion under the PTI government. Since then, growth has steadily declined until the previous year, when it recovered in the current fiscal year.

NAC says these figures still lower than FY22’s level

Stagnant incomes

The per capita income slightly increased to $1,680 in FY24 from $1,551 last year. However, it was $1,766 in FY22 and $1,677 in FY21. This suggests the deterioration of the standard of living and well-being of almost all segments of society with no tangible increase in personal incomes.

It may lead to a decrease in disposable income, limiting individuals’ ability to afford goods and services, save, or invest.

The economy grew at 2.09pc in the third quarter of FY24. The agriculture industry grew at 3.94pc compared to the same quarter last year, thanks to a healthy increase in particularly important crops.

Important crops grew at 2.89pc in Q3 because of an increase in wheat production. Wheat, which was earlier estimated based on area and showed a rise of 6.7pc, has now been estimated based on the first estimate of production, which stands at 31.44 million tons, as reported by provincial crop reporting services.

The hike in wheat has resulted in an increase in the annual benchmark for the year 2023-24, which has also improved the estimates for Q1 and Q2. Other crops have also witnessed reasonable growth of 1.14pc as compared to -0.99pc in Q3 last year. This increase is attributed to a hike in vegetable and fruit production. Livestock is at the same level, while forestry and fishing have also retained their normal growth.

Industry in Q3 has started signs of recovery as it is moving out of negative growth zone after Q1 this year. After consecutive negative growth in Q3, Q4 of 2022-23 and Q1 of 2023-24, the industry is witnessing positive movement in revised Q2 and Q3 of 2023-24, registering a growth of 0.09pc and 3.84pc, respectively. Services industry has shown a growth of 0.83pc in Q3 of 2023-24. Inner analysis of the industry reflects a mixed trend.

Published in Dawn, May 23rd, 2024