Iran president's sudden death a major setback for regime

On May 19, 2024, a helicopter crash in Northwest Iran claimed the lives of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Although the presidency in Iran primarily serves symbolic purposes, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holding the reins of ultimate power, the untimely death of Raisi is a major blow to Khamenei's leadership and introduces potential instability within the governmental structure. This occurs at a critical moment when Iran is navigating a multitude of crises, both domestically and internationally, amplifying the state's existing fragilities.

This incident harkens back to the terminal days of the Shah's reign, reminiscent of the time when the Shah, even after being forced to dismiss his longtime loyal Prime Minister Amir-Abbass Hoveyda, could no longer sustain his regime's stability, leading to its eventual collapse.

In response to escalating uprisings that are shaking the foundations of his rule, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, akin to historical autocrats, chose to further centralize and strengthen his control. His strategic move in July 2021 to appoint Raisi as president effectively marginalized the so-called reformist faction within the government, which had until then acted as mere window dressing.

Khamenei's purges didn't stop there; he also removed significant figures like Ali Larijani, a three-time Speaker of the Parliament, and Hassan Rohani, a two-term president, from the political sphere, disallowing their participation in elections.

The elimination of Ebrahim Raisi, infamous for his role in the 1988 mass executions as part of Tehran's notorious death commission – having signed execution orders for thousands of people, 90% of whom were People's Mojahedine members – undoubtedly shakes the core stability of Khamenei's regime. At present, the regime is rife with internal discord, particularly within the ranks of the ultra-conservative faction close to Khamenei. Reports even suggest Khamenei is struggling with dissent within his security apparatus, having to deploy civilian agents to oversee police operations and prevent defections.

It remains uncertain whether Khamenei can manage to replicate his earlier "soft-purging" success as when he politically maneuvered Raisi into the presidency in spring 2021.

Moreover, according to the regime's own data, the recent legislative elections faced widespread boycotts, signaling deep-seated dissatisfaction and disengagement among the populace. Thus, a re-election at the regime's helm is likely to intensify these internal power struggles. Even before Raisi's demise, factional conflicts for parliamentary leadership were evident. The electoral dispute in 2008 between Ahmadinejad and then-Prime Minister Mousavi, which sparked street protests, underscores the potential for political conflicts to ignite broader civil unrest – a scenario Khamenei desperately seeks to avoid.

Facing limited options, Khamenei could relax his grip, allowing political actors like Larijani and Rouhani more freedom within the political landscape to potentially widen the regime's support base and extend the lifespan of the battered reformist wing. However, he is well aware that loosening control could also lead to upheaval from below, a risk he is reluctant to take.

Alternatively, Khamenei might opt for tightening control, enhancing repressive measures, endorsing a more aggressive foreign policy and accelerating efforts to secure nuclear capabilities as a lifeline for the regime's continuity. This approach has been Khamenei's default strategy.

Navigating these turbulent waters is challenging, especially as thousands of resistance units led by the People's Mojahedin of Iran, or MEK, are prepared across the country to escalate any minor provocation into a significant uprising.

The regime's delayed confirmation of Raisi's death, strategic security deployments in Tehran and other strategic locales, followed by the declaration of a national mourning period, all point to the precariousness of the current situation.

Content created by the WND News Center is available for re-publication without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@wndnewscenter.org.

SUPPORT TRUTHFUL JOURNALISM. MAKE A DONATION TO THE NONPROFIT WND NEWS CENTER. THANK YOU!

The post Iran president's sudden death a major setback for regime appeared first on WND.