Horse racing: Imagination looks like real thing in Preakness

The second leg of the Triple Crown series is first in the hearts of many people in horse racing, for a list of reasons big enough to wallpaper the Pimlico stakes barn.

For those on hand for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, the fun starts with the weeklong buzz around that single barn housing every Preakness horse and horseman, and the old grandstand’s ramshackle charm, and the event’s place in the city’s rich sports history, and the crab dinners.

For bettors everywhere, it starts with the classic handicapping challenge of predicting if the Kentucky Derby winner and his rivals will handle the new track, new distance and new tactical dynamics, and if one of the “fresh” horses will spring a surprise.

A favorite Preakness handicapping memory, because it involves the best win bet I ever made on a major race: In the 2013 Kentucky Derby, an ultra-fast early pace tired the leaders and allowed Orb to rally from 17th and win. But in the Preakness two weeks later, fewer early speedsters were entered, and Oxbow took advantage by setting a comfortable pace to win and reward some of us with a 15-1 payoff while Orb clunked home fourth at 3-5.

“What I like most about wagering on the Preakness is how heavily the Kentucky Derby winner is wagered on (irrationally),” said Tom Quigley, Santa Anita’s VIP player concierge, host of the track’s simulcast handicapping seminars, and publisher of the old HorsePlayer Magazine.

Quigley noted in an email that horses who missed the Derby have won the past four runnings of the Preakness, and no betting favorite has won the Preakness since Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018.

I asked several horse-racing analysts, familiar to Southern California fans, about the Preakness handicapping puzzle in general and Saturday’s 149th Preakness specifically. Can Derby winner Mystik Dan and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. do it again? Is there an upset candidate after Bob Baffert-trained Muth was scratched Wednesday because of a fever?

Jon Lindo, the veteran public handicapper, radio broadcaster and horse owner, said you can tell a lot about the Preakness chances of a Derby winner like Mystik Dan by reading “trainer intent.”

“We know connections running in the Kentucky Derby have been pointing to that specific race for months, for the most part. The Preakness can be an afterthought,” Lindo said. “His trainer, Kenny McPeek, is on record saying the one time he wheeled Mystik Dan back quickly, he ran poorly, and that he believes he is best with time between starts.”

Frank Scatoni, the Santa Anita online handicapper, Del Mar seminar host and “Six Secrets of Successful Bettors” author, offered another caveat about Mystik Dan’s chances after his rail-hugging trip to a photo-finish win in the Derby.

“He was terrific in the Derby, but he was also very lucky,” Scatoni said. “And now he’ll have a target on his back.”

Jon White, the Santa Anita and Del Mar morning-line oddsmaker, pointed to yet another reason for bettors to cast a wide net: All eight Preakness horses will be racing at Pimlico for the first time.

“This makes it a guessing game as to whether or not a horse is going to like running on that particular surface,” White said.

Mystik Dan is the 8-5 favorite on Pimlico’s morning line, revised after original favorite Muth was scratched. Here are the odds for all of the horses, from the rail out: Mugatu 20-1, Uncle Heavy 20-1, Catching Freedom 7-2, Mystik Dan 8-5, Seize the Grey 12-1, Just Steel 12-1, Tuscan Gold 9-2 and Imagination 3-1.

Scatoni likes Tuscan Gold (ridden by Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Chad Brown), who finished third to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby last time out and could improve in only his fourth career start.

“I’m a little disappointed that Muth has been scratched from the race because I was going to try and beat both him and the Derby winner,” said Scatoni, who liked the look of Tuscan Gold’s original 8-1 morning-line odds.

FanDuel TV racing commentator Kurt Hoover likes Imagination (with Frankie Dettori riding), who lost the Santa Anita Derby to Stronghold by a hard-fought neck and then missed the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs’ ban on Baffert horses.

“The scratch of Muth obviously changes things dramatically, not only for storylines but also because I thought he’d be very tough to beat,” Hoover said. “I’m going to pick Imagination. I like the fight and tenacity he’s shown in all six of his starts. I’m a big fan of battle-tested horses.

“Also, the form of the Santa Anita Derby has held up very well. Stronghold ran fairly well in the Derby (coming in seventh) and two horses who finished off the board both came back to win their next start.”

In his weekly blog on Xpressbet.com, White also picked Imagination, seeing the son of leading North American sire Into Mischief as a consistent and improving horse in the hands of eight-time Preakness winner Baffert and an ownership group similar to that of 2023 Preakness winner National Treasure.

“Imagination’s tactical speed could be a major asset this Saturday in a race that isn’t expected to have a fast pace,” White wrote. “Breaking from the outside post, Imagination can race on or just off the early lead without it taking a toll on him.”

I’m with White, Hoover and Imagination.

The 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby saw a contested pace; the four horses who raced within a length of the early lead tired to finish 11th, 17th (Just Steel), 15th and 14th, while the top five finishers rallied from eighth, 17th, 16th, 15th (Catching Freedom) and 18th. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness is likely to be run quite differently, and the horse who can benefit most is Imagination, the only entrant who has won at the stakes level after racing close to the lead.

Such textbook Preakness handicapping has paid off before.

My picks: 1. Imagination, 2. Mystik Dan, 3. Just Steel.

Follow Kevin Modesti on X (formerly Twitter) @Kevin Modesti