Raptors Draft Watch: Lottery Reaction, Winners and Losers

Lottery aftermath reaction, plus winners and losers of the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery.

Once the Chicago Bulls were announced as the 11th pick, it was pretty much guaranteed that the Raptors would get bumped down as the Atlanta Hawks (10th) and the Houston Rockets moved into the top four. With the Raptors ending up with the 8th pick, they must convey their pick as part of the Jakob Poeltl trade. Yuck. But hey, at least the Raptors’ front office should now be free from paying the San Antonio Spurs the Kawhi Leonard trade tax.

In a way, history was not on the Raptors’ side. Since the NBA flattened the odds, the 6th best odds moved down in five of the six lottery draws. The only time it didn’t? It did not move up; it stayed put instead. The sweet spot would have been the 7th best odds, which moved in four of the last six lottery draws. Anyway, that’s water under the bridge, but it doesn’t look good for this Toronto Raptors front office.

Is losing the pick the worst-case scenario for the Raptors?

Not even close.

The worst-case scenario is the Raptors keeping the pick, drafting someone who might not be ready for a few years, and conceding next year’s pick. That’s two years of not giving Scottie Barnes quality young teammates with whom he can play and grow. Add this front office’s track record in the free agency, and now that’s a nightmare scenario.

It sucks that the Raptors will lose the opportunity to add lottery talent to add to the Raptors’ young core. Still, there are ways to add talent to this team outside of picking in the lottery range. If anything, draft pundits have been calling this draft weak, and the top part of the draft could very well be projects, so it’s not like the Raptors are missing out on generational talent.

The Raptors still have the Indiana Pacers’ pick at the 19th and the 31st from the Detroit Pistons, and that’s typically the range of serviceable albeit low-upside players. However, suppose the Raptors do their homework AND get their development system sorted out. In that case, they may land a “steal” at either of these picks. Heck, even some of the worst draft years have produced quality players from the 19th onwards. Just look at these names on some of these so-called “bad drafts”:

• 2020: Tyrese Maxey (21), Immanuel Quickley (25), Jaden McDaniels (28), Desmond Bane (30), Malachi Flynn (just kidding!)
• 2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (24), Rudy Gobert (27),
• 2006: Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), Paul Millsap (47)
• 2002: Tayshaun Prince (23), Nenad Krstic (24), John God’s Plan Salmons (26), Carlos Boozer (35), Luis Scola (56)
• 2000: Jamaal Magloire (19), Mo Peterson (21), Michael Redd (43)

Also, the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic was taken in the 2nd round while the Taco Bell commercial was on.

The most significant silver lining of this lottery result is that it gave the Raptors a much more straightforward path, not having to go through another year of not knowing whether they’ll keep their pick or not, especially not on a potentially star-studded draft class. Once the ping-pong balls were drawn and confirmed that the Raptors fulfilled their trade obligation (there’s still the ‘25 2nd round pick, but at least that’s not a lottery pick), the team controls their fate moving forward. Last year, the talk was all about the “vibes.” Well, having that uncertainty lingering another season is just another bad vibe that this team can do without, and this way, we can enjoy watching this team tank next season from day 1 with minimum expectations.

Masai’s end-of-the-season presser moved the goalpost several yards back to inform us that the team would be bad for a few years. There’s no better time to tank than this upcoming season (the Raptors front office was stubborn not to tank for Victor Wembanyama). The team is built to be naturally bad anyway, with a core still developing, not having depth and talent past its core, and a mediocre coaching staff. Their key players, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, and Kelly Olynyk, have all used up way too many sick days and paid time off last season, and losing just one of them in a game can be the difference between winning and losing.

Enough with the rant. Let’s examine the Raptors’ lottery fate ”winners and losers.”

Loser: Darko Rajakovic

At his end of season presser last month, coach Darko Rajakovic lamented that every team needs great players. The chance of getting a great player is higher within the lottery range than late in the first, or heck, in the second round. With the lottery dreams dashed, the Raptors front office would need to find other means to get coach Rajakovic “great players.”

Loser: Raptors front office’s reputation

In hindsight, the Jakob Poeltl trade wasn’t too bad when it happened. After all, you’re giving up a pick-swap that year (late first to an early second-round pick) and a top-six protected pick in a year and a half. I mean, what could go wrong?

Well, that trade got worse by the minute, from causing spacing issues, availability issues, the team unravelling, and, more recently, the mediocre roster and coaching, leading to a lottery pick. What should have been a pick in the 18+ range in the first round now became the 8th overall pick, and despite the draft pundits downing the quality of players in this draft, whoever gets selected in the top 10 will be significantly better than at least 10 of last season’s 18-man roster in a couple of years.

It’s another swing-and-a-miss for this front office, who hasn’t had any home runs (OG Anunoby trade, arguably) since the Kawhi trade, and yet refused to settle for singles and ended up striking out by not swinging more often than not.

Well, at least it’s not as bad as the Vince Carter trade.

Winner: Team Tank

As mentioned above, Masai already said so in the press conference—he conditioned the fanbase that the team would be bad for several years. However, having a lottery pick could have potentially changed his mind and stubbornly given it one more go to make a silly win-now move if the opportunity presented itself. Instead, destiny told Masai that “it’s time.”

Winner: Bruce Brown

The Raptors surrendering their pick to the Spurs meant that Masai and Bobby would have one fewer means of obtaining talent. There’s a serious talent issue once you get past the core of this team. At the same time, some of the serviceable players are either aging or need to fit the timeline of this young core. Bruce Brown was part of the Pascal Siakam trade with the Indiana Pacers. His team option ($23m) makes him a valuable asset that the Raptors can trade to obtain talent and/or picks starting this upcoming draft night. But first, the Raptors have to decide to pick up his Team Option by June 29th (preferably before the draft).

Winner: Raptors cap space

Had the Raptors kept their pick, they would be on the hook for a minimum of $6M per year for at least three years. The top six prospects will mostly need to “red shirt” or won’t be an instant/consistent contributor any time soon, and that’s a lot of money for someone who will chat with Jalen McDaniels for the entire game. Instead, the 19th pick from the Pacers is more of a value proposition, projected to be under $3M annually.

Loser: 29 other teams

The Raptors have the 19th and 31st picks, Bruce Brown, Jakob Poeltl, and a bunch of salary fillers that they can use. By draft night, there will be 29 teams licking their wounds, with their front office and fanbase thinking, “If only we had this player…” The Raptors are known to drive a hard bargain unless you’re the Spurs, so it will be an annoying draft night and on-the-clock bargaining with the Raptors.

Loser/Winner: Jak Poeltl

The trade wasn’t Jak’s fault, but his availability, or lack thereof, last season didn’t help. The Raptors were 15-21 when he missed 11 straight games last season, and the team went 2-9 during his absence. Jak returned to a new-look Raptors team, and despite the new faces, the team went 6-8 with him on the lineup. Unfortunately, he suffered another injury that stretched into a tanking injury to shut him down for the season.

With the recent lottery outcome that didn’t go favourably for the Raptors, certain pockets of the Raptors fanbase blame him for the misfortune. However, at the very least, the trade is now completed, and we can all move on. With the team expected to tank and obligation fulfilled, this could very well be the sign for the front office to find him a team that fits his timeline much better. If the Raptors are expected to be bad for a few years, getting out of this situation is a win for someone who’s at the prime of his career.