2023-24 Season in Review: Lars Eller

Perhaps Kyle Dubas’ best free agent acquisition thus far?

Vitals

Player: Lars Eller
Born: May 8, 1989
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 205 pounds
Hometown: Rodovre, Denmark
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2007 1st round (13th pick) by the St. Louis Blues
2023-24 Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 16 assists. 31 points
Contract Status: Entering year two of a two-year contract with a cap hit of $2,450,000 for the 2024-25 season.

Monthly Splits

Yahoo! Sports

Story of the Season

Whether stated directly or indirectly, Kyle Dubas’ philosophy heading into the 2023-24 season was, “Let the stars carry the offense, and let the bottom-six focus more on defense.”

That line of thinking translated into a season where, at times, the Pittsburgh Penguins could not put the puck in the back of the net if one or more offensively gifted players had an off night or were injured.

The depth was stretched thin, and the lack of offensive production from most bottom-six players severely hindered the Penguins. Yes, Sidney Crosby had an otherworldly season at 36, but Father Time has an undefeated record. You can’t keep banking on these seasons from Crosby, even if it is unwise to bet against one of the greatest of all time.

How does this pertain to Lars Eller?

Signed in July 2023 as one of Dubas’ first external transactions as interim general manager and president of hockey operations, Eller, much like the other players that would follow suit (Matt Nieto, Noel Acciari, Ryan Graves, etc.), the longtime Washington Capital personified that “defense-first” mantra that Dubas likely had in his head.

For his part, though, Eller played the third-line center role to great success throughout the season. Offense has never been the name of Eller’s game, and Dubas knew that. The third line also didn’t have to be bogged down by a noticeably declining Jeff Carter, which everyone would take as a win.

The Dane was dependable, whether deployed on the penalty kill, used on a maddeningly ineffective power play, or as Sidney Crosby’s first-line winger in the post-Jake Guentzel era.

Regular season 5v5 advanced stats

Data via Natural Stat Trick. The ranking is out of 17 forwards on the team who qualified by playing a minimum of 150 minutes.

Corsi For%: 51.12 (12th)
Goals For%: 48.53 (14th)
xGF%: 50.79 (11th)
Scoring Chance %: 51.26 (12th)
High Danger Scoring Chance%: 53.21 (11th)
5v5 on-ice shooting%: 7.01 (14th)
On-ice save%: 91.75 (9th)
Goals/60: 0.7
Assist/60: 0.7
Points/60: 1.4

For a ranking out of 17 qualified forwards, Eller’s finish in the lower half of these categories shouldn’t be concerning to anyone who watched him play this year. No, they’re not great, but Eller doesn’t necessarily drive offense.

He knows his game is more sandpaper than snazzy.

Charts n’at - Via HockeyViz and JFresh Hockey

Does the overarching theme of “bad offense/good defense” come into clearer focus with more of these charts?

A lot of red and very little blue, but Eller sufficiently filled his role as a no-nonsense defender who had a net positive effect on the penalty kill.

Eller’s line often seemed like a revolving door, with Mike Sullivan constantly shuffling wingers on and off the third line as he tried to find a long-term spark for a team that so often never could get to that “next level” as a cohesive unit.

He found the most success with Drew O’Connor and Valtteri Puustinen.

In the limited time he saw in the offensive zone, most of Eller’s success came down low in front of the net, which isn’t all that surprising.

Highlights

Questions to ponder

Will Eller enter the 2024-25 season as the third-line center? With Jeff Carter’s retirement and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin firmly entrenched in their roles, Eller is in pole position as the best player for that third line.

Even as he enters his age-35 season, and in a perfect world, is the Penguins’ fourth-line center a la Matt Cullen, Eller will remain a pivotal player in a bottom-six unit that looks primed to see massive turnover again.

Ideal 2024-25

Perhaps the rugged Eller can once again log an 82-game season. In a sea of 35+ players, injury and fatigue later in the season could be a concern.

The goal for Kyle Dubas should be signing or trading for a younger, faster third-liner with an offensive pulse. That is much easier said than done.

Bottom line

I can’t see Eller’s first season in Pittsburgh as anything but a success. Thirty-one points in an inept bottom-six, Eller proved to be a steady presence who wore many hats.