Sabrina Carpenter could give the Grammys a taste of ‘Espresso’

Can we all agree Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” is our early song of the summer? The new single has exploded since its release, going on to top the Spotify charts globally and sneakily making its way into our brains. The virality of the song has helped Carpenter become the early frontrunner for that coveted song of the summer title, and if it keeps this up, that might not be the only thing it takes.

If “Espresso” maintains its dominance, it might be in play for a Grammy for Best Pop Solo Performance. The award usually goes to huge hits that define the year, and Carpenter could fit the bill for that. Previous winners include Ed Sheeran’s “Thinking Out Loud,” Miley Cyrus’s “Flowers” and almost all of Adele’s number-one hits. Furthermore, in past years, with the exception of the 2019 ceremony when Lady Gaga‘s “Joanne” surprised, all the winners have peaked in the top-two of the Billboard Hot 100, with most of them going to number-one. “Espresso” hasn’t risen that high yet, but the song is performing very stably on streaming and will likely increase in chart points as it rises on radio. Plus, with its summery feel, it’s likely that the song keeps its streaming domination for a couple of months, which could give it plenty of time to rise above other hits that are ahead of it right now.

“Espresso’s” summer vibe might also be a big advantage at the Grammys. A lot of winners have been songs that either peaked in the summer or were stable through that period of time. Why is this important? Because performing well during the summer means your song will still be relevant near voting, which takes place in early-to-mid fall. Summer hits also have more exposure since it’s the time of the year when people are out and about more and are thus more prone to listening to new hits in public or on the radio. And a summer hit may be more liked by a voter than a song that they’ve already been listening to for nine to 12 months. Grammy-winning hits like Lizzo’s “Truth Hurts” and Harry Styles’s “Watermelon Sugar” fit this mold.

One of Carpenter’s possible disadvantages is that she isn’t as established as some of the big names she may be facing. Right now the race for Best Pop Solo Performance already has some solid contenders in the mix like Ariana Grande (“We Can’t Be Friends”), Dua Lipa (“Houdini”), Doja Cat (“Agora Hills,” if submitted to pop) and Billie Eilish (likely “Lunch” or “Chihiro”). While it is true that pop voters tend to favor well-known pop stars a lot of the time, they aren’t opposed to awarding breakout artists. Lorde’s “Royals,” Lizzo’s aforementioned “Truth Hurts” and Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drivers License” were the first hits for those artists and still managed to win. As such, Carpenter’s relatively limited industry cred shouldn’t be that big of an issue, especially since she did have radio hits pre-“Espresso,” like “Nonsense” and the pop radio number-one “Feather.” So it’s not like Carpenter is a one-hit wonder.

The jury’s still out on “Espresso,” and a lot could still change as the season progresses. The song could end up being a little too sugary for the recording academy membership, or it could simply not have the legs that its early performance suggests. But if the song stays aloft, be prepared: the Grammys might truly have a taste for that “me espresso.”

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