Series Preview: Mets Try to Flip the Script in St. Louis

Coming off a series sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Mets (16-18) are set for three games against the St. Louis Cardinals (15-19).

Over the weekend, the Mets did not win a single game against the Rays. Whether it was the struggles of Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil at the plate, the inability of closer Edwin Díaz to notch a save or the control issues with the starting pitchers, nothing was going right for the Mets at Tropicana Field.

The grass is not exactly greener for the Cardinals. After winning their series against the Mets at Citi Field last weekend, they have lost two out of three games in each of their previous two series. Their lack of pitching depth and inability to get length out of their starting pitchers have hurt their chances at success as of late.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups!

Monday, May 6, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.07 ERA) vs. RHP Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.79 ERA)

Sean Manaea will pitch for the Mets on Monday. The walks have continued to be a problem for Manaea. He has allowed four walks in each of his last two outings, and he ranks in just the 11th percentile in walk percentage this season. This figure is highly problematic for a Mets team that has struggled to prevent the stolen base this year. In addition, Manaea is not keeping the ball on the ground this year, with just a 32.1 percent ground ball rate to start the season. Since Manaea is primarily a sinker-dominant pitcher, he should generate more favorable contact that stays on the ground.

Kyle Gibson will start for the Cardinals on Monday. He has never been known for the swing-and-miss, but he has been very successful in generating whiffs with his offspeed pitches this year. His sweeper and changeup have whiff rates of 45.6 percent and 34.2 percent. Gibson pitched against the Mets last season as a member of the Orioles and tossed seven innings with nine strikeouts and three runs allowed.

Tuesday, May 7, 2024: RHP José Buttó (0-2, 2.57 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (2-4, 5.68 ERA)

José Buttó will start for the Mets on Tuesday. Like Manaea, Buttó has struggled with his control, with a 12.4 percent walk rate this year. However, he ranks in the 91st percentile for whiff rate with a figure of 33.2 percent. He has increased his sinker usage this season and is reaping the benefits as opponents are hitting just .143 against it with an average exit velocity of 84.7 mph. Buttó had his worst start of the season against the Cardinals during the previous series, tossing 5 2/3 innings with four runs allowed. He allowed three walks in that start, so expect Buttó to attack the strike zone with more purpose on Tuesday.

Miles Mikolas will pitch for the Cardinals on Tuesday. Unlike many Mets pitchers, Mikolas has been adept at limiting the walks. He ranks in the 90th percentile for walk rate with a figure of just 4.3 percent. However, Mikolas has struggled in just about every other department. With a whiff rate of 16.1 percent and a hard-hit rate of 45.2 percent, Mikolas has been allowing frequent hard contact, which is not a recipe for success. Things have been looking better for Mikolas in his last two starts, as he pitched a combined 11 2/3 innings while allowing five runs and nine strikeouts.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (1-3, 5.20 ERA) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (4-1, 0.89 ERA)

Jose Quintana will pitch for the Mets on Wednesday. Quintana did not fare well at Tropicana Field in his last start, as he allowed an uncharacteristic eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Consistent with his career numbers, Quintana has not been striking out opponents at a high rate, with just a 15.3 percent strikeout rate. Consequently, he is allowing hard contact with a 42.6 percent hard-hit rate. While he has a ground ball rate of 48.4 percent this season, his average xBA (expected batting average) is .317, showcasing that he is not generating favorable contact.

Sonny Gray will close out the series for the Cardinals. He has been nothing short of excellent to start the year, with a strikeout rate of 33.3 percent and a walk rate of just 4.4 percent. Gray is also generating soft contact with a barrel rate of 4.2 percent and a hard-hit rate of 29.6 percent. When he pitched against the Mets last week, he struck out nine batters over six innings with just one run allowed.

Players to Watch

Francisco Lindor (NYM)

Francisco Lindor has been back to his usual production after his anemic start to the season. In his last 15 games, Lindor has 15 hits, four home runs, and 15 RBIs, with one of those long balls coming against the Cardinals last week. Lindor has a hard-hit rate of 43.8 percent and an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .342, so it was only a matter of time before the hits started landing. He has struggled the most against breaking pitches this year, which he is batting just .196 against with 12 strikeouts.

Nolan Arenado (STL)

Although he had a slow start to the season, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has picked it up as of late. In his last ten games, Arenado has eight RBIs, ten hits, and one long ball. Five of his ten hits came against the White Sox in the series over the weekend, with six RBIs to show for it as well. Arenado has hit the fastball particularly well this season, with a batting average of .299, so expect the Mets to give him a steady diet of breaking and offspeed pitches this week.

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